Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 72% implied probability of no qualifying natural disaster in 2026, anchored by the absence of any Category 5 hurricane U.S. landfall on the Saffir-Simpson scale, 10-kiloton-plus bolide airburst per NASA CNEOS data, VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption via Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program monitoring, or M8.5+ earthquake on the USGS moment magnitude scale through mid-April. Recent developments, including a M7.4 quake off Indonesia on April 1 and routine low-VEI eruptions worldwide, fall well short of thresholds, while Colorado State University's April outlook forecasts below-average Atlantic hurricane activity amid emerging El Niño conditions suppressing intensification. Key upcoming catalysts include NHC preseason updates in May and June 1 season start, though historical baselines—Cat 5 U.S. landfalls roughly once per decade, VEI 6+ events rarer still—bolster the "No" positioning amid inherent forecasting uncertainties.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트예
$203,820 거래량
$203,820 거래량
2026.12.31
예
$203,820 거래량
$203,820 거래량
2026.12.31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 72% implied probability of no qualifying natural disaster in 2026, anchored by the absence of any Category 5 hurricane U.S. landfall on the Saffir-Simpson scale, 10-kiloton-plus bolide airburst per NASA CNEOS data, VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption via Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program monitoring, or M8.5+ earthquake on the USGS moment magnitude scale through mid-April. Recent developments, including a M7.4 quake off Indonesia on April 1 and routine low-VEI eruptions worldwide, fall well short of thresholds, while Colorado State University's April outlook forecasts below-average Atlantic hurricane activity amid emerging El Niño conditions suppressing intensification. Key upcoming catalysts include NHC preseason updates in May and June 1 season start, though historical baselines—Cat 5 U.S. landfalls roughly once per decade, VEI 6+ events rarer still—bolster the "No" positioning amid inherent forecasting uncertainties.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
마켓 개설일: Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ET
거래량
$203,820종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 72% implied probability of no qualifying natural disaster in 2026, anchored by the absence of any Category 5 hurricane U.S. landfall on the Saffir-Simpson scale, 10-kiloton-plus bolide airburst per NASA CNEOS data, VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption via Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program monitoring, or M8.5+ earthquake on the USGS moment magnitude scale through mid-April. Recent developments, including a M7.4 quake off Indonesia on April 1 and routine low-VEI eruptions worldwide, fall well short of thresholds, while Colorado State University's April outlook forecasts below-average Atlantic hurricane activity amid emerging El Niño conditions suppressing intensification. Key upcoming catalysts include NHC preseason updates in May and June 1 season start, though historical baselines—Cat 5 U.S. landfalls roughly once per decade, VEI 6+ events rarer still—bolster the "No" positioning amid inherent forecasting uncertainties.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
거래량
$203,820종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 72% implied probability of no qualifying natural disaster in 2026, anchored by the absence of any Category 5 hurricane U.S. landfall on the Saffir-Simpson scale, 10-kiloton-plus bolide airburst per NASA CNEOS data, VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption via Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program monitoring, or M8.5+ earthquake on the USGS moment magnitude scale through mid-April. Recent developments, including a M7.4 quake off Indonesia on April 1 and routine low-VEI eruptions worldwide, fall well short of thresholds, while Colorado State University's April outlook forecasts below-average Atlantic hurricane activity amid emerging El Niño conditions suppressing intensification. Key upcoming catalysts include NHC preseason updates in May and June 1 season start, though historical baselines—Cat 5 U.S. landfalls roughly once per decade, VEI 6+ events rarer still—bolster the "No" positioning amid inherent forecasting uncertainties.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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