Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 72% implied probability to "No" for a qualifying natural disaster in 2026, driven by the historical rarity of the threshold events—no Category 5 hurricane landfall in the continental US per NOAA Saffir-Simpson scale, no VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption per Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program, no M8.5+ earthquake per USGS moment magnitude scale, and no 10-kiloton+ meteor impact per NASA tracking—and the complete absence of any such occurrences through mid-April 2026. Early-year tropical systems like Hurricane Imelda remained sub-Category 5 without US landfall, while global seismic and volcanic activity stayed within norms, lacking precursors for escalation. With eight months remaining, including the June-November Atlantic hurricane season, NOAA's upcoming seasonal forecast and real-time monitoring from USGS and NASA could shift odds if models signal heightened risks from neutral ENSO conditions.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트예
$203,829 거래량
$203,829 거래량
2026.12.31
예
$203,829 거래량
$203,829 거래량
2026.12.31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 72% implied probability to "No" for a qualifying natural disaster in 2026, driven by the historical rarity of the threshold events—no Category 5 hurricane landfall in the continental US per NOAA Saffir-Simpson scale, no VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption per Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program, no M8.5+ earthquake per USGS moment magnitude scale, and no 10-kiloton+ meteor impact per NASA tracking—and the complete absence of any such occurrences through mid-April 2026. Early-year tropical systems like Hurricane Imelda remained sub-Category 5 without US landfall, while global seismic and volcanic activity stayed within norms, lacking precursors for escalation. With eight months remaining, including the June-November Atlantic hurricane season, NOAA's upcoming seasonal forecast and real-time monitoring from USGS and NASA could shift odds if models signal heightened risks from neutral ENSO conditions.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
마켓 개설일: Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ET
거래량
$203,829종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 72% implied probability to "No" for a qualifying natural disaster in 2026, driven by the historical rarity of the threshold events—no Category 5 hurricane landfall in the continental US per NOAA Saffir-Simpson scale, no VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption per Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program, no M8.5+ earthquake per USGS moment magnitude scale, and no 10-kiloton+ meteor impact per NASA tracking—and the complete absence of any such occurrences through mid-April 2026. Early-year tropical systems like Hurricane Imelda remained sub-Category 5 without US landfall, while global seismic and volcanic activity stayed within norms, lacking precursors for escalation. With eight months remaining, including the June-November Atlantic hurricane season, NOAA's upcoming seasonal forecast and real-time monitoring from USGS and NASA could shift odds if models signal heightened risks from neutral ENSO conditions.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
거래량
$203,829종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 72% implied probability to "No" for a qualifying natural disaster in 2026, driven by the historical rarity of the threshold events—no Category 5 hurricane landfall in the continental US per NOAA Saffir-Simpson scale, no VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption per Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program, no M8.5+ earthquake per USGS moment magnitude scale, and no 10-kiloton+ meteor impact per NASA tracking—and the complete absence of any such occurrences through mid-April 2026. Early-year tropical systems like Hurricane Imelda remained sub-Category 5 without US landfall, while global seismic and volcanic activity stayed within norms, lacking precursors for escalation. With eight months remaining, including the June-November Atlantic hurricane season, NOAA's upcoming seasonal forecast and real-time monitoring from USGS and NASA could shift odds if models signal heightened risks from neutral ENSO conditions.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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