Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 62% implied probability of a Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cash rate increase at the May 5, 2026 meeting, reflecting persistent inflation above the 2-3% target band and a resilient labor market. February 2026 CPI rose 3.7% year-over-year, easing only slightly from 3.8%, while employment surged 48,900 and unemployment held at 4.3%, underscoring economic strength after back-to-back 25-basis-point hikes to 4.10% in February and March. RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser's April 14 remarks questioning whether rates are sufficiently restrictive to tame inflation have bolstered hike expectations, with ASX futures aligning closely at around 64%. A no-change outcome at 38.5% hinges on softer upcoming March-quarter CPI data due late April; cuts remain negligible amid upward pressure.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트Increase 64%
No Change 37%
Decrease <1%
$28,630 거래량
$28,630 거래량
2026.05.05
Decrease
1%
No Change
33%
Increase
64%
Increase 64%
No Change 37%
Decrease <1%
$28,630 거래량
$28,630 거래량
2026.05.05
Decrease
$8,261 거래량
1%
No Change
$4,016 거래량
33%
Increase
$16,352 거래량
64%
This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the cash rate resulting from the Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Board’s May meeting, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Reserve Bank of Australia after its May 5, 2026 meeting, as listed on the official Reserve Bank of Australia calendar: https://www.rba.gov.au/schedules-events/board-meeting-schedules.html
This market may resolve as soon as the Reserve Bank of Australia's media release for their May 5, 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the target for the cash rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 62% implied probability of a Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cash rate increase at the May 5, 2026 meeting, reflecting persistent inflation above the 2-3% target band and a resilient labor market. February 2026 CPI rose 3.7% year-over-year, easing only slightly from 3.8%, while employment surged 48,900 and unemployment held at 4.3%, underscoring economic strength after back-to-back 25-basis-point hikes to 4.10% in February and March. RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser's April 14 remarks questioning whether rates are sufficiently restrictive to tame inflation have bolstered hike expectations, with ASX futures aligning closely at around 64%. A no-change outcome at 38.5% hinges on softer upcoming March-quarter CPI data due late April; cuts remain negligible amid upward pressure.
This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the cash rate resulting from the Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Board’s May meeting, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Reserve Bank of Australia after its May 5, 2026 meeting, as listed on the official Reserve Bank of Australia calendar: https://www.rba.gov.au/schedules-events/board-meeting-schedules.html
This market may resolve as soon as the Reserve Bank of Australia's media release for their May 5, 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the target for the cash rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Reserve Bank of Australia after its May 5, 2026 meeting, as listed on the official Reserve Bank of Australia calendar: https://www.rba.gov.au/schedules-events/board-meeting-schedules.html
This market may resolve as soon as the Reserve Bank of Australia's media release for their May 5, 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the target for the cash rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket.
마켓 개설일: Feb 3, 2026, 10:32 AM ET
거래량
$28,630종료일
2026.05.05마켓 개설일
Feb 3, 2026, 10:32 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the cash rate resulting from the Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Board’s May meeting, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Reserve Bank of Australia after its May 5, 2026 meeting, as listed on the official Reserve Bank of Australia calendar: https://www.rba.gov.au/schedules-events/board-meeting-schedules.html
This market may resolve as soon as the Reserve Bank of Australia's media release for their May 5, 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the target for the cash rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 62% implied probability of a Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cash rate increase at the May 5, 2026 meeting, reflecting persistent inflation above the 2-3% target band and a resilient labor market. February 2026 CPI rose 3.7% year-over-year, easing only slightly from 3.8%, while employment surged 48,900 and unemployment held at 4.3%, underscoring economic strength after back-to-back 25-basis-point hikes to 4.10% in February and March. RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser's April 14 remarks questioning whether rates are sufficiently restrictive to tame inflation have bolstered hike expectations, with ASX futures aligning closely at around 64%. A no-change outcome at 38.5% hinges on softer upcoming March-quarter CPI data due late April; cuts remain negligible amid upward pressure.
This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the cash rate resulting from the Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Board’s May meeting, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Reserve Bank of Australia after its May 5, 2026 meeting, as listed on the official Reserve Bank of Australia calendar: https://www.rba.gov.au/schedules-events/board-meeting-schedules.html
This market may resolve as soon as the Reserve Bank of Australia's media release for their May 5, 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the target for the cash rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Reserve Bank of Australia after its May 5, 2026 meeting, as listed on the official Reserve Bank of Australia calendar: https://www.rba.gov.au/schedules-events/board-meeting-schedules.html
This market may resolve as soon as the Reserve Bank of Australia's media release for their May 5, 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the target for the cash rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket.
거래량
$28,630종료일
2026.05.05마켓 개설일
Feb 3, 2026, 10:32 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 62% implied probability of a Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cash rate increase at the May 5, 2026 meeting, reflecting persistent inflation above the 2-3% target band and a resilient labor market. February 2026 CPI rose 3.7% year-over-year, easing only slightly from 3.8%, while employment surged 48,900 and unemployment held at 4.3%, underscoring economic strength after back-to-back 25-basis-point hikes to 4.10% in February and March. RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser's April 14 remarks questioning whether rates are sufficiently restrictive to tame inflation have bolstered hike expectations, with ASX futures aligning closely at around 64%. A no-change outcome at 38.5% hinges on softer upcoming March-quarter CPI data due late April; cuts remain negligible amid upward pressure.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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