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정치·풍요로움

4월에 트럼프가 동의할 이란의 요구는 무엇인가?

Market icon
정치·풍요로움

4월에 트럼프가 동의할 이란의 요구는 무엇인가?

$796,311 거래량

2026.04.30
Polymarket

$796,311 거래량

Polymarket
트럼프는 4월에 이란의 우라늄 농축을 허용할 것인가? icon

우라늄 농축

$500,092 거래량

24%

트럼프는 4월에 이란 석유 제재 해제에 동의할까? icon

석유 제재 해제

$137,520 거래량

38%

트럼프는 4월에 호르무즈 해협에서 이란의 통과 요금에 동의할까요? icon

호르무즈 해협의 통과 요금

$144,566 거래량

9%

트럼프는 4월에 이란 자산 동결 해제를 허용할까요? icon

이란 자산 동결 해제

$15,160 거래량

37%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States agrees to the continued enrichment of uranium by Iran by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Continued enrichment of uranium by Iran refers to US acceptance of the enrichment of, or the right to enrich, any quantity of uranium by Iran for any future amount of time. Agreements that include limitations, restrictions, or specified terms (e.g., caps on enrichment level, monitoring requirements) will qualify, provided the United States accepts continued enrichment. The United States will be considered to have agreed to the continued enrichment of uranium by Iran if: - Donald Trump or another authorized representative of the Government of the United States publicly announces that they have definitively agreed to accept the continued enrichment of uranium by Iran. - Continued enrichment of uranium by Iran is included as part of a treaty or deal that is formally established between the United States and Iran, either through signing or other formal means. Agreement refers to an explicit acceptance, authorization or consent to the specified action. Only announcements of definitive agreement will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify. Any definitive agreement or commitment made before the resolution date will be considered, regardless of when or whether the specified action is begun. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump and the US government and their official representatives; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to verify the details of an announcement or formal agreement.This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States agrees to remove, suspend, waive, or otherwise reduce any sanctions restricting Iranian oil exports by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Sanctions restricting Iranian oil exports refers to U.S. restrictions that prohibit or limit the production, sale, transport, purchase, or export of crude oil, petroleum, or petrochemical products from Iran, including associated shipping, insurance, and financial transactions necessary for such exports. This includes both primary sanctions, which apply to U.S. persons, and secondary sanctions, which apply to non-U.S. persons or entities engaging in such activities. The United States will be considered to have agreed to remove, suspend, waive, or reduce such sanctions if: - Donald Trump or another authorized representative of the Government of the United States publicly announces that the United States has definitively agreed to remove, suspend, waive, or otherwise reduce any sanctions restricting Iranian oil - The removal, suspension, waiver, or reduction of any such sanctions is included as part of a treaty or deal formally established between the United States and Iran, including through signing or other formal means. Agreement refers to an explicit acceptance, authorization, or consent to the specified action. Only announcements of definitive agreement will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify. Any definitive agreement or commitment made before the resolution date will qualify, regardless of when or whether the specified action is implemented. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump, the U.S. government, and their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to verify the details of an announcement or formal agreement.This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States agrees to Iran charging fees on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Iran charging fees on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz refers to U.S. acceptance of Iran imposing tolls, transit fees, passage charges, or other mandatory payments on commercial vessels in exchange for transit through the Strait of Hormuz. The United States will be considered to have agreed to Iran charging such fees if: - Donald Trump or another authorized representative of the Government of the United States publicly announces that the United States has definitively agreed to accept Iran charging such fees on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz. - Iran charging such fees is included as part of a treaty or deal formally established between the United States and Iran, including through signing or other formal means. Agreement refers to an explicit acceptance, authorization, or consent to the specified action. Only announcements of definitive agreement will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify. Any definitive agreement or commitment made before the resolution date will qualify, regardless of when or whether the specified action is implemented. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump, the U.S. government, and their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to verify the details of an announcement or formal agreement.This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States agrees to unfreeze any Iranian assets by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Unfreezing Iranian assets refers to the release, transfer, or restoration of Iranian access to any assets that are frozen, blocked, or otherwise inaccessible due to U.S. sanctions or restrictions. This includes both assets held in the United States and assets held in foreign jurisdictions where access is restricted due to U.S. sanctions. The removal of sanctions which freeze these assets will also be considered to be unfreezing Iranian assets. The United States will be considered to have agreed to unfreeze Iranian assets if: - Donald Trump or another authorized representative of the Government of the United States publicly announces that the United States has agreed to unfreeze any Iranian assets. - The unfreezing of any Iranian assets is included as part of a treaty or deal that is formally established between the United States and Iran, either through signing or other formal means. Agreement refers to an explicit acceptance, authorization or consent to the specified action. Only announcements of definitive agreement will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify. Any definitive agreement or commitment made before the resolution date will be considered, regardless of when or whether the specified action is begun. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump, the U.S. government, and their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to verify the details of an announcement or formal agreement.US-Iran negotiations remain stalled after marathon talks in Islamabad on April 10-12 failed over Tehran's refusal to fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz without tolls or mines, prompting President Trump to launch a US naval blockade of Iranian ports on April 13. The two-week ceasefire agreed April 8—expiring around April 22—holds fragilely amid Trump's insistence on a 20-year moratorium on uranium enrichment and an end to nuclear weapons development, demands Iran deems excessive. Trump expressed optimism April 14-15 for resumed indirect talks possibly in Pakistan soon, signaling trader focus on whether he concedes any Iranian priorities like limited enrichment or Hormuz concessions before month-end, against historical maximum-pressure precedents.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States agrees to remove, suspend, waive, or otherwise reduce any sanctions restricting Iranian oil exports by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Sanctions restricting Iranian oil exports refers to U.S. restrictions that prohibit or limit the production, sale, transport, purchase, or export of crude oil, petroleum, or petrochemical products from Iran, including associated shipping, insurance, and financial transactions necessary for such exports. This includes both primary sanctions, which apply to U.S. persons, and secondary sanctions, which apply to non-U.S. persons or entities engaging in such activities.

The United States will be considered to have agreed to remove, suspend, waive, or reduce such sanctions if:
- Donald Trump or another authorized representative of the Government of the United States publicly announces that the United States has definitively agreed to remove, suspend, waive, or otherwise reduce any sanctions restricting Iranian oil
- The removal, suspension, waiver, or reduction of any such sanctions is included as part of a treaty or deal formally established between the United States and Iran, including through signing or other formal means.

Agreement refers to an explicit acceptance, authorization, or consent to the specified action. Only announcements of definitive agreement will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify.

Any definitive agreement or commitment made before the resolution date will qualify, regardless of when or whether the specified action is implemented.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump, the U.S. government, and their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to verify the details of an announcement or formal agreement.
거래량
$796,311
종료일
2026.04.30
마켓 개설일
Apr 9, 2026, 3:36 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States agrees to remove, suspend, waive, or otherwise reduce any sanctions restricting Iranian oil exports by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Sanctions restricting Iranian oil exports refers to U.S. restrictions that prohibit or limit the production, sale, transport, purchase, or export of crude oil, petroleum, or petrochemical products from Iran, including associated shipping, insurance, and financial transactions necessary for such exports. This includes both primary sanctions, which apply to U.S. persons, and secondary sanctions, which apply to non-U.S. persons or entities engaging in such activities. The United States will be considered to have agreed to remove, suspend, waive, or reduce such sanctions if: - Donald Trump or another authorized representative of the Government of the United States publicly announces that the United States has definitively agreed to remove, suspend, waive, or otherwise reduce any sanctions restricting Iranian oil - The removal, suspension, waiver, or reduction of any such sanctions is included as part of a treaty or deal formally established between the United States and Iran, including through signing or other formal means. Agreement refers to an explicit acceptance, authorization, or consent to the specified action. Only announcements of definitive agreement will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify. Any definitive agreement or commitment made before the resolution date will qualify, regardless of when or whether the specified action is implemented. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump, the U.S. government, and their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to verify the details of an announcement or formal agreement.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States agrees to the continued enrichment of uranium by Iran by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Continued enrichment of uranium by Iran refers to US acceptance of the enrichment of, or the right to enrich, any quantity of uranium by Iran for any future amount of time. Agreements that include limitations, restrictions, or specified terms (e.g., caps on enrichment level, monitoring requirements) will qualify, provided the United States accepts continued enrichment. The United States will be considered to have agreed to the continued enrichment of uranium by Iran if: - Donald Trump or another authorized representative of the Government of the United States publicly announces that they have definitively agreed to accept the continued enrichment of uranium by Iran. - Continued enrichment of uranium by Iran is included as part of a treaty or deal that is formally established between the United States and Iran, either through signing or other formal means. Agreement refers to an explicit acceptance, authorization or consent to the specified action. Only announcements of definitive agreement will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify. Any definitive agreement or commitment made before the resolution date will be considered, regardless of when or whether the specified action is begun. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump and the US government and their official representatives; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to verify the details of an announcement or formal agreement.This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States agrees to remove, suspend, waive, or otherwise reduce any sanctions restricting Iranian oil exports by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Sanctions restricting Iranian oil exports refers to U.S. restrictions that prohibit or limit the production, sale, transport, purchase, or export of crude oil, petroleum, or petrochemical products from Iran, including associated shipping, insurance, and financial transactions necessary for such exports. This includes both primary sanctions, which apply to U.S. persons, and secondary sanctions, which apply to non-U.S. persons or entities engaging in such activities. The United States will be considered to have agreed to remove, suspend, waive, or reduce such sanctions if: - Donald Trump or another authorized representative of the Government of the United States publicly announces that the United States has definitively agreed to remove, suspend, waive, or otherwise reduce any sanctions restricting Iranian oil - The removal, suspension, waiver, or reduction of any such sanctions is included as part of a treaty or deal formally established between the United States and Iran, including through signing or other formal means. Agreement refers to an explicit acceptance, authorization, or consent to the specified action. Only announcements of definitive agreement will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify. Any definitive agreement or commitment made before the resolution date will qualify, regardless of when or whether the specified action is implemented. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump, the U.S. government, and their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to verify the details of an announcement or formal agreement.This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States agrees to Iran charging fees on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Iran charging fees on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz refers to U.S. acceptance of Iran imposing tolls, transit fees, passage charges, or other mandatory payments on commercial vessels in exchange for transit through the Strait of Hormuz. The United States will be considered to have agreed to Iran charging such fees if: - Donald Trump or another authorized representative of the Government of the United States publicly announces that the United States has definitively agreed to accept Iran charging such fees on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz. - Iran charging such fees is included as part of a treaty or deal formally established between the United States and Iran, including through signing or other formal means. Agreement refers to an explicit acceptance, authorization, or consent to the specified action. Only announcements of definitive agreement will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify. Any definitive agreement or commitment made before the resolution date will qualify, regardless of when or whether the specified action is implemented. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump, the U.S. government, and their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to verify the details of an announcement or formal agreement.This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States agrees to unfreeze any Iranian assets by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Unfreezing Iranian assets refers to the release, transfer, or restoration of Iranian access to any assets that are frozen, blocked, or otherwise inaccessible due to U.S. sanctions or restrictions. This includes both assets held in the United States and assets held in foreign jurisdictions where access is restricted due to U.S. sanctions. The removal of sanctions which freeze these assets will also be considered to be unfreezing Iranian assets. The United States will be considered to have agreed to unfreeze Iranian assets if: - Donald Trump or another authorized representative of the Government of the United States publicly announces that the United States has agreed to unfreeze any Iranian assets. - The unfreezing of any Iranian assets is included as part of a treaty or deal that is formally established between the United States and Iran, either through signing or other formal means. Agreement refers to an explicit acceptance, authorization or consent to the specified action. Only announcements of definitive agreement will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify. Any definitive agreement or commitment made before the resolution date will be considered, regardless of when or whether the specified action is begun. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump, the U.S. government, and their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to verify the details of an announcement or formal agreement.US-Iran negotiations remain stalled after marathon talks in Islamabad on April 10-12 failed over Tehran's refusal to fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz without tolls or mines, prompting President Trump to launch a US naval blockade of Iranian ports on April 13. The two-week ceasefire agreed April 8—expiring around April 22—holds fragilely amid Trump's insistence on a 20-year moratorium on uranium enrichment and an end to nuclear weapons development, demands Iran deems excessive. Trump expressed optimism April 14-15 for resumed indirect talks possibly in Pakistan soon, signaling trader focus on whether he concedes any Iranian priorities like limited enrichment or Hormuz concessions before month-end, against historical maximum-pressure precedents.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States agrees to remove, suspend, waive, or otherwise reduce any sanctions restricting Iranian oil exports by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Sanctions restricting Iranian oil exports refers to U.S. restrictions that prohibit or limit the production, sale, transport, purchase, or export of crude oil, petroleum, or petrochemical products from Iran, including associated shipping, insurance, and financial transactions necessary for such exports. This includes both primary sanctions, which apply to U.S. persons, and secondary sanctions, which apply to non-U.S. persons or entities engaging in such activities.

The United States will be considered to have agreed to remove, suspend, waive, or reduce such sanctions if:
- Donald Trump or another authorized representative of the Government of the United States publicly announces that the United States has definitively agreed to remove, suspend, waive, or otherwise reduce any sanctions restricting Iranian oil
- The removal, suspension, waiver, or reduction of any such sanctions is included as part of a treaty or deal formally established between the United States and Iran, including through signing or other formal means.

Agreement refers to an explicit acceptance, authorization, or consent to the specified action. Only announcements of definitive agreement will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify.

Any definitive agreement or commitment made before the resolution date will qualify, regardless of when or whether the specified action is implemented.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump, the U.S. government, and their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to verify the details of an announcement or formal agreement.
거래량
$796,311
종료일
2026.04.30
마켓 개설일
Apr 9, 2026, 3:36 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States agrees to remove, suspend, waive, or otherwise reduce any sanctions restricting Iranian oil exports by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Sanctions restricting Iranian oil exports refers to U.S. restrictions that prohibit or limit the production, sale, transport, purchase, or export of crude oil, petroleum, or petrochemical products from Iran, including associated shipping, insurance, and financial transactions necessary for such exports. This includes both primary sanctions, which apply to U.S. persons, and secondary sanctions, which apply to non-U.S. persons or entities engaging in such activities. The United States will be considered to have agreed to remove, suspend, waive, or reduce such sanctions if: - Donald Trump or another authorized representative of the Government of the United States publicly announces that the United States has definitively agreed to remove, suspend, waive, or otherwise reduce any sanctions restricting Iranian oil - The removal, suspension, waiver, or reduction of any such sanctions is included as part of a treaty or deal formally established between the United States and Iran, including through signing or other formal means. Agreement refers to an explicit acceptance, authorization, or consent to the specified action. Only announcements of definitive agreement will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify. Any definitive agreement or commitment made before the resolution date will qualify, regardless of when or whether the specified action is implemented. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump, the U.S. government, and their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to verify the details of an announcement or formal agreement.

외부 링크에 주의하세요.

자주 묻는 질문

"4월에 트럼프가 동의할 이란의 요구는 무엇인가?"은 4개의 가능한 결과가 있는 Polymarket의 예측 마켓으로, 트레이더들이 어떤 결과가 발생할지에 따라 주식을 매수 및 매도합니다. 현재 선두 결과는 38%의 "석유 제재 해제"이며, 이어서 37%의 "이란 자산 동결 해제"입니다. 가격은 실시간 크라우드소싱 확률을 반영합니다. 예를 들어 38¢에 거래되는 주식은 마켓이 해당 결과에 38%의 확률을 부여함을 의미합니다. 이 확률은 트레이더들이 새로운 진전과 정보에 반응함에 따라 지속적으로 변화합니다. 정확한 결과의 주식은 마켓 정산 시 각 $1에 교환 가능합니다.

오늘 현재 "4월에 트럼프가 동의할 이란의 요구는 무엇인가?"은 총 $796.3K의 거래량을 생성했습니다 마켓이 Apr 9, 2026에 시작된 이후. 이 수준의 거래 활동은 Polymarket 커뮤니티의 강한 참여를 반영하며 현재 확률이 깊은 참가자 풀에 의해 정보에 기반하도록 보장합니다. 이 페이지에서 실시간 가격 변동을 추적하고 모든 결과에 직접 거래할 수 있습니다.

"4월에 트럼프가 동의할 이란의 요구는 무엇인가?"에서 거래하려면 이 페이지에 나열된 4개의 가용 결과를 탐색하세요. 각 결과에는 마켓의 내재 확률을 나타내는 현재 가격이 표시됩니다. 포지션을 잡으려면 가장 가능성이 높다고 생각하는 결과를 선택하고, 찬성이면 "Yes", 반대이면 "No"를 선택하고, 금액을 입력하고 "거래"를 클릭하세요. 마켓이 정산될 때 선택한 결과가 맞으면 "Yes" 주식은 각 $1을 지급합니다. 틀리면 $0을 지급합니다. 수익을 확정하거나 손실을 줄이고 싶다면 정산 전 언제든지 주식을 매도할 수 있습니다.

"4월에 트럼프가 동의할 이란의 요구는 무엇인가?"의 현재 유력 후보는 38%의 "석유 제재 해제"이며, 마켓이 해당 결과에 38%의 확률을 부여합니다. 두 번째로 가까운 결과는 37%의 "이란 자산 동결 해제"입니다. 이 확률은 트레이더들의 주식 매수 및 매도에 따라 실시간으로 업데이트되어 가장 가능성 있는 결과에 대한 최신 집단 시각을 반영합니다. 새로운 정보가 나타남에 따라 확률이 어떻게 변화하는지 자주 확인하거나 이 페이지를 북마크하세요.

"4월에 트럼프가 동의할 이란의 요구는 무엇인가?"의 정산 규칙은 각 결과가 승자로 선언되기 위해 정확히 무엇이 일어나야 하는지를 정의합니다 — 결과를 결정하는 데 사용되는 공식 데이터 소스를 포함합니다. 이 페이지의 댓글 위 "규칙" 섹션에서 완전한 정산 기준을 검토할 수 있습니다. 거래 전 규칙을 주의 깊게 읽는 것을 권장합니다. 이 마켓이 어떻게 정산되는지를 관리하는 정확한 조건, 예외 사항, 출처를 명시하고 있습니다.