Trader consensus heavily favors Democrats at 84.5% implied probability to win House control in the November 3, 2026 midterms, driven by their +5.6 point lead in the RealClearPolling generic ballot average as of April 13 (47.5% Dems to 41.9% Republicans), reflecting sustained polling dominance amid historical midterm penalties for the president's party, which typically loses 20-30 seats. Republicans hold a precarious 218-214 effective majority with four vacancies, exacerbated by recent April 14 resignations of Reps. Swalwell (D-CA) and Gonzales (R-TX), plus higher GOP retirements (15 vs. 13 Democratic incumbents). Backlash to U.S. involvement in the Iran conflict has fractured the Republican base, boosting Democratic odds despite economic uncertainties and upcoming primaries in battleground districts. Late shifts in turnout or scandals could still alter the path.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$4,497,943 거래량
$4,497,943 거래량
2026.11.03
4% 수익
민주당
85%
공화당
15%
$4,497,943 거래량
$4,497,943 거래량
2026.11.03
4% 수익
민주당
$2,274,668 거래량
85%
공화당
$2,223,275 거래량
15%
This market will resolve according to the party that controls the House of Representatives following the 2026 U.S. House elections scheduled for November 3, 2026.
House control is defined as having more than half of the voting members of the U.S. House of Representatives.
If the outcome of this election is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will remain open until the Speaker of the House is selected following the 2026 U.S. general election, at which point it will resolve to the party the Speaker is affiliated with at the time of their election to that position. If the elected Speaker does not caucus with any listed party this market will resolve “Other”.
Determination of which party controls the House after the 2026 U.S. House elections will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, or if there is ambiguity, final federal and/or state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2026 election results.Trader consensus heavily favors Democrats at 84.5% implied probability to win House control in the November 3, 2026 midterms, driven by their +5.6 point lead in the RealClearPolling generic ballot average as of April 13 (47.5% Dems to 41.9% Republicans), reflecting sustained polling dominance amid historical midterm penalties for the president's party, which typically loses 20-30 seats. Republicans hold a precarious 218-214 effective majority with four vacancies, exacerbated by recent April 14 resignations of Reps. Swalwell (D-CA) and Gonzales (R-TX), plus higher GOP retirements (15 vs. 13 Democratic incumbents). Backlash to U.S. involvement in the Iran conflict has fractured the Republican base, boosting Democratic odds despite economic uncertainties and upcoming primaries in battleground districts. Late shifts in turnout or scandals could still alter the path.
This market will resolve according to the party that controls the House of Representatives following the 2026 U.S. House elections scheduled for November 3, 2026.
House control is defined as having more than half of the voting members of the U.S. House of Representatives.
If the outcome of this election is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will remain open until the Speaker of the House is selected following the 2026 U.S. general election, at which point it will resolve to the party the Speaker is affiliated with at the time of their election to that position. If the elected Speaker does not caucus with any listed party this market will resolve “Other”.
Determination of which party controls the House after the 2026 U.S. House elections will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, or if there is ambiguity, final federal and/or state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2026 election results.
House control is defined as having more than half of the voting members of the U.S. House of Representatives.
If the outcome of this election is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will remain open until the Speaker of the House is selected following the 2026 U.S. general election, at which point it will resolve to the party the Speaker is affiliated with at the time of their election to that position. If the elected Speaker does not caucus with any listed party this market will resolve “Other”.
Determination of which party controls the House after the 2026 U.S. House elections will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, or if there is ambiguity, final federal and/or state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2026 election results.
마켓 개설일: Jul 11, 2025, 3:48 PM ET
거래량
$4,497,943종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jul 11, 2025, 3:48 PM ETWe anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
This market will resolve according to the party that controls the House of Representatives following the 2026 U.S. House elections scheduled for November 3, 2026.
House control is defined as having more than half of the voting members of the U.S. House of Representatives.
If the outcome of this election is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will remain open until the Speaker of the House is selected following the 2026 U.S. general election, at which point it will resolve to the party the Speaker is affiliated with at the time of their election to that position. If the elected Speaker does not caucus with any listed party this market will resolve “Other”.
Determination of which party controls the House after the 2026 U.S. House elections will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, or if there is ambiguity, final federal and/or state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2026 election results.Trader consensus heavily favors Democrats at 84.5% implied probability to win House control in the November 3, 2026 midterms, driven by their +5.6 point lead in the RealClearPolling generic ballot average as of April 13 (47.5% Dems to 41.9% Republicans), reflecting sustained polling dominance amid historical midterm penalties for the president's party, which typically loses 20-30 seats. Republicans hold a precarious 218-214 effective majority with four vacancies, exacerbated by recent April 14 resignations of Reps. Swalwell (D-CA) and Gonzales (R-TX), plus higher GOP retirements (15 vs. 13 Democratic incumbents). Backlash to U.S. involvement in the Iran conflict has fractured the Republican base, boosting Democratic odds despite economic uncertainties and upcoming primaries in battleground districts. Late shifts in turnout or scandals could still alter the path.
This market will resolve according to the party that controls the House of Representatives following the 2026 U.S. House elections scheduled for November 3, 2026.
House control is defined as having more than half of the voting members of the U.S. House of Representatives.
If the outcome of this election is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will remain open until the Speaker of the House is selected following the 2026 U.S. general election, at which point it will resolve to the party the Speaker is affiliated with at the time of their election to that position. If the elected Speaker does not caucus with any listed party this market will resolve “Other”.
Determination of which party controls the House after the 2026 U.S. House elections will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, or if there is ambiguity, final federal and/or state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2026 election results.
House control is defined as having more than half of the voting members of the U.S. House of Representatives.
If the outcome of this election is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will remain open until the Speaker of the House is selected following the 2026 U.S. general election, at which point it will resolve to the party the Speaker is affiliated with at the time of their election to that position. If the elected Speaker does not caucus with any listed party this market will resolve “Other”.
Determination of which party controls the House after the 2026 U.S. House elections will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, or if there is ambiguity, final federal and/or state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2026 election results.
거래량
$4,497,943종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jul 11, 2025, 3:48 PM ETWe anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Trader consensus heavily favors Democrats at 84.5% implied probability to win House control in the November 3, 2026 midterms, driven by their +5.6 point lead in the RealClearPolling generic ballot average as of April 13 (47.5% Dems to 41.9% Republicans), reflecting sustained polling dominance amid historical midterm penalties for the president's party, which typically loses 20-30 seats. Republicans hold a precarious 218-214 effective majority with four vacancies, exacerbated by recent April 14 resignations of Reps. Swalwell (D-CA) and Gonzales (R-TX), plus higher GOP retirements (15 vs. 13 Democratic incumbents). Backlash to U.S. involvement in the Iran conflict has fractured the Republican base, boosting Democratic odds despite economic uncertainties and upcoming primaries in battleground districts. Late shifts in turnout or scandals could still alter the path.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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