Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 77% implied probability for at least one 2026 month shattering the global surface air temperature record, driven by the relentless warming trend and an emerging El Niño forecast. Copernicus Climate Change Service data confirms March 2026 as the fourth-warmest March on record at 1.48°C above pre-industrial levels, with sea surface temperatures nearing prior peaks despite current ENSO-neutral conditions. NOAA's annual outlook gives 2026 a 98.4% chance of ranking in the top five warmest years, bolstered by NOAA CPC projections of El Niño emergence by May-July (61% likelihood), which typically amplifies summer and fall heat. Upcoming monthly bulletins from Copernicus and NOAA, plus refined ENSO models, could shift these odds amid inherent forecast uncertainties.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트예
$119,603 거래량
$119,603 거래량
2027.01.10
예
$119,603 거래량
$119,603 거래량
2027.01.10
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for any month of 2026 versus the data points available for all years for the relevant month on record. If any month of 2026 is the hottest of that month for any year in record, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note: If any month of 2026 is tied for hottest with the same month of another year, this market will resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
This market may resolve immediately upon the release of data for any month which qualifies towards a "Yes" resolution.
If no information for all months is provided by NASA by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 77% implied probability for at least one 2026 month shattering the global surface air temperature record, driven by the relentless warming trend and an emerging El Niño forecast. Copernicus Climate Change Service data confirms March 2026 as the fourth-warmest March on record at 1.48°C above pre-industrial levels, with sea surface temperatures nearing prior peaks despite current ENSO-neutral conditions. NOAA's annual outlook gives 2026 a 98.4% chance of ranking in the top five warmest years, bolstered by NOAA CPC projections of El Niño emergence by May-July (61% likelihood), which typically amplifies summer and fall heat. Upcoming monthly bulletins from Copernicus and NOAA, plus refined ENSO models, could shift these odds amid inherent forecast uncertainties.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for any month of 2026 versus the data points available for all years for the relevant month on record. If any month of 2026 is the hottest of that month for any year in record, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note: If any month of 2026 is tied for hottest with the same month of another year, this market will resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
This market may resolve immediately upon the release of data for any month which qualifies towards a "Yes" resolution.
If no information for all months is provided by NASA by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If any month of 2026 is tied for hottest with the same month of another year, this market will resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
This market may resolve immediately upon the release of data for any month which qualifies towards a "Yes" resolution.
If no information for all months is provided by NASA by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
마켓 개설일: Feb 9, 2026, 6:26 PM ET
거래량
$119,603종료일
2027.01.10마켓 개설일
Feb 9, 2026, 6:26 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for any month of 2026 versus the data points available for all years for the relevant month on record. If any month of 2026 is the hottest of that month for any year in record, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note: If any month of 2026 is tied for hottest with the same month of another year, this market will resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
This market may resolve immediately upon the release of data for any month which qualifies towards a "Yes" resolution.
If no information for all months is provided by NASA by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 77% implied probability for at least one 2026 month shattering the global surface air temperature record, driven by the relentless warming trend and an emerging El Niño forecast. Copernicus Climate Change Service data confirms March 2026 as the fourth-warmest March on record at 1.48°C above pre-industrial levels, with sea surface temperatures nearing prior peaks despite current ENSO-neutral conditions. NOAA's annual outlook gives 2026 a 98.4% chance of ranking in the top five warmest years, bolstered by NOAA CPC projections of El Niño emergence by May-July (61% likelihood), which typically amplifies summer and fall heat. Upcoming monthly bulletins from Copernicus and NOAA, plus refined ENSO models, could shift these odds amid inherent forecast uncertainties.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for any month of 2026 versus the data points available for all years for the relevant month on record. If any month of 2026 is the hottest of that month for any year in record, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note: If any month of 2026 is tied for hottest with the same month of another year, this market will resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
This market may resolve immediately upon the release of data for any month which qualifies towards a "Yes" resolution.
If no information for all months is provided by NASA by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If any month of 2026 is tied for hottest with the same month of another year, this market will resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
This market may resolve immediately upon the release of data for any month which qualifies towards a "Yes" resolution.
If no information for all months is provided by NASA by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
거래량
$119,603종료일
2027.01.10마켓 개설일
Feb 9, 2026, 6:26 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 77% implied probability for at least one 2026 month shattering the global surface air temperature record, driven by the relentless warming trend and an emerging El Niño forecast. Copernicus Climate Change Service data confirms March 2026 as the fourth-warmest March on record at 1.48°C above pre-industrial levels, with sea surface temperatures nearing prior peaks despite current ENSO-neutral conditions. NOAA's annual outlook gives 2026 a 98.4% chance of ranking in the top five warmest years, bolstered by NOAA CPC projections of El Niño emergence by May-July (61% likelihood), which typically amplifies summer and fall heat. Upcoming monthly bulletins from Copernicus and NOAA, plus refined ENSO models, could shift these odds amid inherent forecast uncertainties.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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