Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certainty that Iran will not sabotage undersea internet cables by April 30, driven by the absence of any verified incidents despite heightened tensions in the ongoing US-Iran conflict, including a US naval blockade of Iranian ports since April 13 and prior Iranian threats in late March targeting cables in the Strait of Hormuz and Red Sea. These threats, widely circulated but lacking credible primary confirmation, have not materialized amid mutual dependency—Iran relies on the same global connectivity backbone carrying 95% of data traffic—logistical challenges for undetected sabotage under heavy surveillance, and risks of provoking direct naval retaliation from US, UK, and allied fleets. Contingency rerouting by operators like Google and Meta has mitigated disruptions. While escalation such as major military setbacks or covert operations could shift odds, historical patterns favor restraint on such high-stakes asymmetric actions.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트예
$90,063 거래량
$90,063 거래량
2026.04.30
예
$90,063 거래량
$90,063 거래량
2026.04.30
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran or Iranian-aligned groups damage undersea internet cables between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only actions that cause physical damage to the undersea internet cable infrastructure, e.g., physical sabotage, such as cutting, dragging, or explosive attacks, will be considered. Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
Qualifying incidents must occur in the region spanning the Persian Gulf, Strait of Hormuz, Gulf of Oman, Arabian Sea, Gulf of Aden, and Red Sea, including areas surrounding the Arabian Peninsula.
Attempted attacks that do not result in damage, or actions that are intercepted or fail to impact the cables, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Incidents which are broadly attributed to Iranian forces or Iranian-aligned groups will qualify regardless of the absence of definitive evidence or official Iranian denials.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certainty that Iran will not sabotage undersea internet cables by April 30, driven by the absence of any verified incidents despite heightened tensions in the ongoing US-Iran conflict, including a US naval blockade of Iranian ports since April 13 and prior Iranian threats in late March targeting cables in the Strait of Hormuz and Red Sea. These threats, widely circulated but lacking credible primary confirmation, have not materialized amid mutual dependency—Iran relies on the same global connectivity backbone carrying 95% of data traffic—logistical challenges for undetected sabotage under heavy surveillance, and risks of provoking direct naval retaliation from US, UK, and allied fleets. Contingency rerouting by operators like Google and Meta has mitigated disruptions. While escalation such as major military setbacks or covert operations could shift odds, historical patterns favor restraint on such high-stakes asymmetric actions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran or Iranian-aligned groups damage undersea internet cables between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only actions that cause physical damage to the undersea internet cable infrastructure, e.g., physical sabotage, such as cutting, dragging, or explosive attacks, will be considered. Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
Qualifying incidents must occur in the region spanning the Persian Gulf, Strait of Hormuz, Gulf of Oman, Arabian Sea, Gulf of Aden, and Red Sea, including areas surrounding the Arabian Peninsula.
Attempted attacks that do not result in damage, or actions that are intercepted or fail to impact the cables, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Incidents which are broadly attributed to Iranian forces or Iranian-aligned groups will qualify regardless of the absence of definitive evidence or official Iranian denials.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only actions that cause physical damage to the undersea internet cable infrastructure, e.g., physical sabotage, such as cutting, dragging, or explosive attacks, will be considered. Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
Qualifying incidents must occur in the region spanning the Persian Gulf, Strait of Hormuz, Gulf of Oman, Arabian Sea, Gulf of Aden, and Red Sea, including areas surrounding the Arabian Peninsula.
Attempted attacks that do not result in damage, or actions that are intercepted or fail to impact the cables, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Incidents which are broadly attributed to Iranian forces or Iranian-aligned groups will qualify regardless of the absence of definitive evidence or official Iranian denials.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
마켓 개설일: Mar 23, 2026, 6:23 PM ET
거래량
$90,063종료일
2026.04.30마켓 개설일
Mar 23, 2026, 6:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran or Iranian-aligned groups damage undersea internet cables between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only actions that cause physical damage to the undersea internet cable infrastructure, e.g., physical sabotage, such as cutting, dragging, or explosive attacks, will be considered. Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
Qualifying incidents must occur in the region spanning the Persian Gulf, Strait of Hormuz, Gulf of Oman, Arabian Sea, Gulf of Aden, and Red Sea, including areas surrounding the Arabian Peninsula.
Attempted attacks that do not result in damage, or actions that are intercepted or fail to impact the cables, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Incidents which are broadly attributed to Iranian forces or Iranian-aligned groups will qualify regardless of the absence of definitive evidence or official Iranian denials.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certainty that Iran will not sabotage undersea internet cables by April 30, driven by the absence of any verified incidents despite heightened tensions in the ongoing US-Iran conflict, including a US naval blockade of Iranian ports since April 13 and prior Iranian threats in late March targeting cables in the Strait of Hormuz and Red Sea. These threats, widely circulated but lacking credible primary confirmation, have not materialized amid mutual dependency—Iran relies on the same global connectivity backbone carrying 95% of data traffic—logistical challenges for undetected sabotage under heavy surveillance, and risks of provoking direct naval retaliation from US, UK, and allied fleets. Contingency rerouting by operators like Google and Meta has mitigated disruptions. While escalation such as major military setbacks or covert operations could shift odds, historical patterns favor restraint on such high-stakes asymmetric actions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran or Iranian-aligned groups damage undersea internet cables between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only actions that cause physical damage to the undersea internet cable infrastructure, e.g., physical sabotage, such as cutting, dragging, or explosive attacks, will be considered. Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
Qualifying incidents must occur in the region spanning the Persian Gulf, Strait of Hormuz, Gulf of Oman, Arabian Sea, Gulf of Aden, and Red Sea, including areas surrounding the Arabian Peninsula.
Attempted attacks that do not result in damage, or actions that are intercepted or fail to impact the cables, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Incidents which are broadly attributed to Iranian forces or Iranian-aligned groups will qualify regardless of the absence of definitive evidence or official Iranian denials.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only actions that cause physical damage to the undersea internet cable infrastructure, e.g., physical sabotage, such as cutting, dragging, or explosive attacks, will be considered. Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
Qualifying incidents must occur in the region spanning the Persian Gulf, Strait of Hormuz, Gulf of Oman, Arabian Sea, Gulf of Aden, and Red Sea, including areas surrounding the Arabian Peninsula.
Attempted attacks that do not result in damage, or actions that are intercepted or fail to impact the cables, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Incidents which are broadly attributed to Iranian forces or Iranian-aligned groups will qualify regardless of the absence of definitive evidence or official Iranian denials.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
거래량
$90,063종료일
2026.04.30마켓 개설일
Mar 23, 2026, 6:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certainty that Iran will not sabotage undersea internet cables by April 30, driven by the absence of any verified incidents despite heightened tensions in the ongoing US-Iran conflict, including a US naval blockade of Iranian ports since April 13 and prior Iranian threats in late March targeting cables in the Strait of Hormuz and Red Sea. These threats, widely circulated but lacking credible primary confirmation, have not materialized amid mutual dependency—Iran relies on the same global connectivity backbone carrying 95% of data traffic—logistical challenges for undetected sabotage under heavy surveillance, and risks of provoking direct naval retaliation from US, UK, and allied fleets. Contingency rerouting by operators like Google and Meta has mitigated disruptions. While escalation such as major military setbacks or covert operations could shift odds, historical patterns favor restraint on such high-stakes asymmetric actions.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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