Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 68.5% chance against a U.S. ground invasion of Iran before 2027, reflecting the absence of confirmed plans amid escalating but limited military actions. Over the past week, the U.S. launched a naval blockade of Iranian ports, intercepting oil tankers since April 14, following the breakdown of marathon peace talks in Islamabad that failed to yield a ceasefire. President Trump has dismissed immediate new negotiations despite diplomatic overtures for a second round, while high-tempo U.S. and Israeli airstrikes target Iranian assets without ground troop commitments. Iran's mobilization of over a million fighters and strategic defenses, combined with risks of oil price surges and broader escalation, deter full invasion, favoring containment via blockade and sanctions as traders weigh de-escalation paths ahead.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트예
$10,631,476 거래량
$10,631,476 거래량
2026.12.31
예
$10,631,476 거래량
$10,631,476 거래량
2026.12.31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 68.5% chance against a U.S. ground invasion of Iran before 2027, reflecting the absence of confirmed plans amid escalating but limited military actions. Over the past week, the U.S. launched a naval blockade of Iranian ports, intercepting oil tankers since April 14, following the breakdown of marathon peace talks in Islamabad that failed to yield a ceasefire. President Trump has dismissed immediate new negotiations despite diplomatic overtures for a second round, while high-tempo U.S. and Israeli airstrikes target Iranian assets without ground troop commitments. Iran's mobilization of over a million fighters and strategic defenses, combined with risks of oil price surges and broader escalation, deter full invasion, favoring containment via blockade and sanctions as traders weigh de-escalation paths ahead.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
마켓 개설일: Nov 5, 2025, 12:51 PM ET
거래량
$10,631,476종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Nov 5, 2025, 12:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 68.5% chance against a U.S. ground invasion of Iran before 2027, reflecting the absence of confirmed plans amid escalating but limited military actions. Over the past week, the U.S. launched a naval blockade of Iranian ports, intercepting oil tankers since April 14, following the breakdown of marathon peace talks in Islamabad that failed to yield a ceasefire. President Trump has dismissed immediate new negotiations despite diplomatic overtures for a second round, while high-tempo U.S. and Israeli airstrikes target Iranian assets without ground troop commitments. Iran's mobilization of over a million fighters and strategic defenses, combined with risks of oil price surges and broader escalation, deter full invasion, favoring containment via blockade and sanctions as traders weigh de-escalation paths ahead.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
거래량
$10,631,486종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Nov 5, 2025, 12:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 68.5% chance against a U.S. ground invasion of Iran before 2027, reflecting the absence of confirmed plans amid escalating but limited military actions. Over the past week, the U.S. launched a naval blockade of Iranian ports, intercepting oil tankers since April 14, following the breakdown of marathon peace talks in Islamabad that failed to yield a ceasefire. President Trump has dismissed immediate new negotiations despite diplomatic overtures for a second round, while high-tempo U.S. and Israeli airstrikes target Iranian assets without ground troop commitments. Iran's mobilization of over a million fighters and strategic defenses, combined with risks of oil price surges and broader escalation, deter full invasion, favoring containment via blockade and sanctions as traders weigh de-escalation paths ahead.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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