Despite a recent breakdown in U.S.-Iran negotiations in Islamabad on April 12 without a peace deal, trader consensus prices a U.S. ground invasion of Iran before 2027 at just 32.5%, reflecting the fragile but holding two-week ceasefire brokered via Pakistan and signals of potential new talks. Ongoing U.S. airstrikes, a Strait of Hormuz blockade, and troop buildups exceeding 50,000 personnel—including Marines and 82nd Airborne reinforcements—signal sustained pressure, yet Pentagon planning for limited operations like seizing Kharg Island stops short of full-scale invasion amid congressional war powers debates and Iran's warnings of fierce resistance. High costs, historical invasion pitfalls, and diplomatic off-ramps keep de-escalation favored by markets.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트예
$10,618,110 거래량
$10,618,110 거래량
2026.12.31
예
$10,618,110 거래량
$10,618,110 거래량
2026.12.31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.Despite a recent breakdown in U.S.-Iran negotiations in Islamabad on April 12 without a peace deal, trader consensus prices a U.S. ground invasion of Iran before 2027 at just 32.5%, reflecting the fragile but holding two-week ceasefire brokered via Pakistan and signals of potential new talks. Ongoing U.S. airstrikes, a Strait of Hormuz blockade, and troop buildups exceeding 50,000 personnel—including Marines and 82nd Airborne reinforcements—signal sustained pressure, yet Pentagon planning for limited operations like seizing Kharg Island stops short of full-scale invasion amid congressional war powers debates and Iran's warnings of fierce resistance. High costs, historical invasion pitfalls, and diplomatic off-ramps keep de-escalation favored by markets.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
마켓 개설일: Nov 5, 2025, 12:51 PM ET
거래량
$10,618,110종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Nov 5, 2025, 12:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.Despite a recent breakdown in U.S.-Iran negotiations in Islamabad on April 12 without a peace deal, trader consensus prices a U.S. ground invasion of Iran before 2027 at just 32.5%, reflecting the fragile but holding two-week ceasefire brokered via Pakistan and signals of potential new talks. Ongoing U.S. airstrikes, a Strait of Hormuz blockade, and troop buildups exceeding 50,000 personnel—including Marines and 82nd Airborne reinforcements—signal sustained pressure, yet Pentagon planning for limited operations like seizing Kharg Island stops short of full-scale invasion amid congressional war powers debates and Iran's warnings of fierce resistance. High costs, historical invasion pitfalls, and diplomatic off-ramps keep de-escalation favored by markets.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
거래량
$10,619,341종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Nov 5, 2025, 12:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Despite a recent breakdown in U.S.-Iran negotiations in Islamabad on April 12 without a peace deal, trader consensus prices a U.S. ground invasion of Iran before 2027 at just 32.5%, reflecting the fragile but holding two-week ceasefire brokered via Pakistan and signals of potential new talks. Ongoing U.S. airstrikes, a Strait of Hormuz blockade, and troop buildups exceeding 50,000 personnel—including Marines and 82nd Airborne reinforcements—signal sustained pressure, yet Pentagon planning for limited operations like seizing Kharg Island stops short of full-scale invasion amid congressional war powers debates and Iran's warnings of fierce resistance. High costs, historical invasion pitfalls, and diplomatic off-ramps keep de-escalation favored by markets.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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