Recent short-range model runs from agencies including AEMET and the UK Met Office indicate peak temperatures in Madrid of 37–38°C on August 8, supported by a persistent heatwave fueled by hot, dry air advection from North Africa. This aligns with the market's leading implied probabilities at those thresholds, as August climatology shows typical highs near 32–35°C that are elevated by current synoptic conditions. Model consensus remains tight on the upper range, though minor shifts in timing or localized urban heat-island effects could alter the exact daily maximum before resolution.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoTemperatura mais alta em Madrid a 8 de agosto?
38°C 46%
37°C 33%
39°C 22%
40°C 3%
34°C ou menos
<1%
35°C
2%
36°C
3%
37°C
33%
38°C
46%
39°C
22%
40°C
3%
41°C
2%
42°C
<1%
43°C
<1%
44°C ou mais
<1%
38°C 46%
37°C 33%
39°C 22%
40°C 3%
34°C ou menos
<1%
35°C
2%
36°C
3%
37°C
33%
38°C
46%
39°C
22%
40°C
3%
41°C
2%
42°C
<1%
43°C
<1%
44°C ou mais
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercado Aberto: Aug 6, 2026, 1:03 AM ET
Fonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Fonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent short-range model runs from agencies including AEMET and the UK Met Office indicate peak temperatures in Madrid of 37–38°C on August 8, supported by a persistent heatwave fueled by hot, dry air advection from North Africa. This aligns with the market's leading implied probabilities at those thresholds, as August climatology shows typical highs near 32–35°C that are elevated by current synoptic conditions. Model consensus remains tight on the upper range, though minor shifts in timing or localized urban heat-island effects could alter the exact daily maximum before resolution.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado

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