Trader sentiment clusters tightly around 50-55°F highs for Chicago on March 28, driven by the National Weather Service's latest forecast pinning the afternoon peak near 51°F under partly cloudy skies with light southerly winds fostering mild advection. Ensemble models like GFS and ECMWF show minimal spread, with means hovering 50-53°F, differentiating the top bins: 50-51°F edges out via operational GFS bias toward conservatism, while 52-53°F gains from ECMWF's warmer tilt amid weakening cold air damming. Historical late-March normals (~48°F) and Lake Michigan moderation cap upside risks, muting 54°F+ odds despite 850mb temperatures nearing +5°C; uncertainty lingers in timing of any diurnally enhanced mixing.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоHighest temperature in Chicago on March 28?
Highest temperature in Chicago on March 28?
52-53°F 24%
48-49°F 22%
50-51°F 19%
54-55°F 19%
43°F or below
5%
44-45°F
8%
46-47°F
10%
48-49°F
22%
50-51°F
24%
52-53°F
24%
54-55°F
19%
56-57°F
6%
58-59°F
3%
60-61°F
3%
62°F or higher
1%
52-53°F 24%
48-49°F 22%
50-51°F 19%
54-55°F 19%
43°F or below
5%
44-45°F
8%
46-47°F
10%
48-49°F
22%
50-51°F
24%
52-53°F
24%
54-55°F
19%
56-57°F
6%
58-59°F
3%
60-61°F
3%
62°F or higher
1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Mar 24, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment clusters tightly around 50-55°F highs for Chicago on March 28, driven by the National Weather Service's latest forecast pinning the afternoon peak near 51°F under partly cloudy skies with light southerly winds fostering mild advection. Ensemble models like GFS and ECMWF show minimal spread, with means hovering 50-53°F, differentiating the top bins: 50-51°F edges out via operational GFS bias toward conservatism, while 52-53°F gains from ECMWF's warmer tilt amid weakening cold air damming. Historical late-March normals (~48°F) and Lake Michigan moderation cap upside risks, muting 54°F+ odds despite 850mb temperatures nearing +5°C; uncertainty lingers in timing of any diurnally enhanced mixing.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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