Trader sentiment on Hong Kong's highest temperature on March 22 heavily favors 25°C at 27% implied probability, propelled by the Hong Kong Observatory's latest forecast indicating a daytime peak near 25°C under a stable high-pressure ridge fostering subsidence warming and mostly clear skies. Closely trailing 26°C (20%) and 24°C (16.5%) reflect model ensemble divergence, with ECMWF leaning warmer due to reduced sea breeze influence from light northerly winds, while GFS variants suggest potential cloud incursions capping at 24°C. Historical March maxima average 23.5°C, but recent urban heat island amplification and low humidity differentiate these outcomes, with intraday observations key to resolution amid minimal volatility in upper-air patterns.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоСамая высокая температура в Гонконге 22 марта?
Самая высокая температура в Гонконге 22 марта?
25°C 27%
26°C 20%
24°C 16%
22°C 12%
17°C или ниже
<1%
18°C
1%
19°C
2%
20°C
1%
21°C
2%
22°C
12%
23°C
9%
24°C
16%
25°C
27%
26°C
20%
27°C или выше
10%
25°C 27%
26°C 20%
24°C 16%
22°C 12%
17°C или ниже
<1%
18°C
1%
19°C
2%
20°C
1%
21°C
2%
22°C
12%
23°C
9%
24°C
16%
25°C
27%
26°C
20%
27°C или выше
10%
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Mar 18, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment on Hong Kong's highest temperature on March 22 heavily favors 25°C at 27% implied probability, propelled by the Hong Kong Observatory's latest forecast indicating a daytime peak near 25°C under a stable high-pressure ridge fostering subsidence warming and mostly clear skies. Closely trailing 26°C (20%) and 24°C (16.5%) reflect model ensemble divergence, with ECMWF leaning warmer due to reduced sea breeze influence from light northerly winds, while GFS variants suggest potential cloud incursions capping at 24°C. Historical March maxima average 23.5°C, but recent urban heat island amplification and low humidity differentiate these outcomes, with intraday observations key to resolution amid minimal volatility in upper-air patterns.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Часто задаваемые вопросы