Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in short-range forecast models like GFS and ECMWF ensembles, which project Miami's highest temperature on April 1 around 80-82°F, aligning with early April climatological normals of 81°F at Miami International Airport. Slightly cooler 78-79°F odds stem from potential lingering effects of South Florida's mildly below-normal winter (1°F deficit per NWS summary), including possible weak frontal boundaries or enhanced sea breezes capping peaks, while warmer 82-83°F draws from persistent high pressure and warm Atlantic sea surface temperatures favoring diurnal heating. Key differentiators include cloud cover variability and timing of sea breeze onset; new model runs expected daily through March 31 could sharpen implied probabilities as resolution nears.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоHighest temperature in Miami on April 1?
Highest temperature in Miami on April 1?
80-81°F 40%
82-83°F 31%
78-79°F 27%
74-75°F 6.0%
NEW
NEW
Apr 1, 2026
73°F или ниже
3%
74-75°F
6%
76-77°F
5%
78-79°F
27%
80-81°F
40%
82-83°F
31%
84-85°F
5%
86-87°F
3%
88-89°F
3%
90-91°F
3%
92°F or higher
2%
80-81°F 40%
82-83°F 31%
78-79°F 27%
74-75°F 6.0%
NEW
NEW
Apr 1, 2026
73°F или ниже
$292 Объем
3%
74-75°F
$32 Объем
6%
76-77°F
$20 Объем
5%
78-79°F
$267 Объем
27%
80-81°F
$64 Объем
40%
82-83°F
$362 Объем
31%
84-85°F
$15 Объем
5%
86-87°F
$15 Объем
3%
88-89°F
$15 Объем
3%
90-91°F
$15 Объем
3%
92°F or higher
$20 Объем
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Miami Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in short-range forecast models like GFS and ECMWF ensembles, which project Miami's highest temperature on April 1 around 80-82°F, aligning with early April climatological normals of 81°F at Miami International Airport. Slightly cooler 78-79°F odds stem from potential lingering effects of South Florida's mildly below-normal winter (1°F deficit per NWS summary), including possible weak frontal boundaries or enhanced sea breezes capping peaks, while warmer 82-83°F draws from persistent high pressure and warm Atlantic sea surface temperatures favoring diurnal heating. Key differentiators include cloud cover variability and timing of sea breeze onset; new model runs expected daily through March 31 could sharpen implied probabilities as resolution nears.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Miami Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Miami Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Mar 28, 2026, 6:08 AM ET
Объем
$1,083Дата окончания
Apr 1, 2026Открытие рынка
Mar 28, 2026, 6:08 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Miami Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in short-range forecast models like GFS and ECMWF ensembles, which project Miami's highest temperature on April 1 around 80-82°F, aligning with early April climatological normals of 81°F at Miami International Airport. Slightly cooler 78-79°F odds stem from potential lingering effects of South Florida's mildly below-normal winter (1°F deficit per NWS summary), including possible weak frontal boundaries or enhanced sea breezes capping peaks, while warmer 82-83°F draws from persistent high pressure and warm Atlantic sea surface temperatures favoring diurnal heating. Key differentiators include cloud cover variability and timing of sea breeze onset; new model runs expected daily through March 31 could sharpen implied probabilities as resolution nears.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Miami Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Miami Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Объем
$1,083Дата окончания
Apr 1, 2026Открытие рынка
Mar 28, 2026, 6:08 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in short-range forecast models like GFS and ECMWF ensembles, which project Miami's highest temperature on April 1 around 80-82°F, aligning with early April climatological normals of 81°F at Miami International Airport. Slightly cooler 78-79°F odds stem from potential lingering effects of South Florida's mildly below-normal winter (1°F deficit per NWS summary), including possible weak frontal boundaries or enhanced sea breezes capping peaks, while warmer 82-83°F draws from persistent high pressure and warm Atlantic sea surface temperatures favoring diurnal heating. Key differentiators include cloud cover variability and timing of sea breeze onset; new model runs expected daily through March 31 could sharpen implied probabilities as resolution nears.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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