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Highest temperature in San Francisco on April 4?

Market icon

Highest temperature in San Francisco on April 4?

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78°F or higher 79%

76-77°F 14%

74-75°F 4.0%

72-73°F 3.0%

Polymarket

$18,687 Объем

78°F or higher 79%

76-77°F 14%

74-75°F 4.0%

72-73°F 3.0%

Polymarket

$18,687 Объем

59°F or below

$2,464 Объем

<1%

60-61°F

$1,318 Объем

<1%

62-63°F

$1,464 Объем

<1%

64-65°F

$777 Объем

<1%

66-67°F

$758 Объем

<1%

68-69°F

$2,472 Объем

1%

70-71°F

$2,544 Объем

1%

72-73°F

$1,427 Объем

3%

74-75°F

$1,872 Объем

4%

76-77°F

$1,581 Объем

14%

78°F or higher

$2,029 Объем

79%

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Apr '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors a high of 78°F or higher in San Francisco on April 4 (78.5% implied probability), reflecting National Weather Service forecasts and model consensus projecting upper-70s peaks amid a potent warming trend. Following scattered rain through April 2 that ended a wet pattern, high pressure has built over California, ushering moderate offshore northeast winds that promote adiabatic warming through downslope compression and suppress marine layer intrusion for clear skies. April 3 highs neared 74°F, setting up peak heat Saturday under sunny conditions and light winds, 15°F above the April climatological average of 63°F. Final NWS updates and hourly observations will refine resolution near official downtown or SFO measurements, though gusty winds pose minor uncertainty for exact maxima.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Apr '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Объем
$18,687
Дата окончания
4 апр. 2026 г.
Открытие рынка
Mar 29, 2026, 2:44 PM ET

Источник определения исхода

https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Apr '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Apr '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors a high of 78°F or higher in San Francisco on April 4 (78.5% implied probability), reflecting National Weather Service forecasts and model consensus projecting upper-70s peaks amid a potent warming trend. Following scattered rain through April 2 that ended a wet pattern, high pressure has built over California, ushering moderate offshore northeast winds that promote adiabatic warming through downslope compression and suppress marine layer intrusion for clear skies. April 3 highs neared 74°F, setting up peak heat Saturday under sunny conditions and light winds, 15°F above the April climatological average of 63°F. Final NWS updates and hourly observations will refine resolution near official downtown or SFO measurements, though gusty winds pose minor uncertainty for exact maxima.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Apr '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Объем
$18,687
Дата окончания
4 апр. 2026 г.
Открытие рынка
Mar 29, 2026, 2:44 PM ET

Источник определения исхода

https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Apr '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.

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Часто задаваемые вопросы

«Highest temperature in San Francisco on April 4?» — это рынок прогнозов на Polymarket с 11 возможными исходами, где трейдеры покупают и продают акции на основе своих прогнозов. Текущий лидирующий исход — «78°F or higher» с 79%, за ним следует «76-77°F» с 14%. Цены отражают вероятности сообщества в реальном времени. Например, акция по цене 79¢ означает, что рынок коллективно оценивает вероятность этого исхода в 79%. Эти коэффициенты постоянно меняются. Акции правильного исхода можно обменять на $1 каждую при разрешении рынка.

На сегодняшний день «Highest temperature in San Francisco on April 4?» сгенерировал общий объём торгов $18.7K с момента запуска рынка Mar 29, 2026. Такой уровень активности отражает высокую вовлечённость сообщества Polymarket и гарантирует, что текущие коэффициенты формируются широким кругом участников рынка. Ты можешь отслеживать движение цен в реальном времени и торговать любым исходом прямо на этой странице.

Чтобы торговать на «Highest temperature in San Francisco on April 4?», просмотри 11 доступных исходов на этой странице. Каждый исход показывает текущую цену, представляющую подразумеваемую вероятность рынка. Чтобы занять позицию, выбери исход, который считаешь наиболее вероятным, выбери «Да» для торговли в его пользу или «Нет» для торговли против, введи сумму и нажми «Торговать». Если твой выбранный исход окажется верным, твои акции «Да» принесут $1 каждая. Если нет — $0. Ты также можешь продать акции до разрешения.

Текущий фаворит для «Highest temperature in San Francisco on April 4?» — «78°F or higher» с 79%, что означает, что рынок оценивает вероятность этого исхода в 79%. Следующий ближайший исход — «76-77°F» с 14%. Эти коэффициенты обновляются в реальном времени по мере покупки и продажи акций. Заходи чаще или добавь страницу в закладки.

Правила разрешения «Highest temperature in San Francisco on April 4?» точно определяют, что должно произойти, чтобы каждый исход был объявлен победителем, включая официальные источники данных, используемые для определения результата. Ты можешь просмотреть полные критерии разрешения в разделе «Правила» на этой странице над комментариями. Мы рекомендуем внимательно прочитать правила перед торговлей, так как они определяют точные условия, особые случаи и источники.