Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 38% probability for more than nine magnitude 5.5 or greater earthquakes worldwide from April 13-19, reflecting the historical global baseline of roughly 8-12 such events per week per USGS statistics, governed by the Gutenberg-Richter frequency-magnitude relation on tectonic fault systems. As of April 16, USGS data confirms at least four qualifying events: M5.7 near Silver Springs, Nevada on April 13; M5.5 near Neiafu, Tonga on April 13; M5.5 Pagan region, Northern Mariana Islands on April 13; and M6.0 south of Kermadec Islands on April 16, with three days left in the window. No unusual seismic swarms or precursors elevate risks beyond steady Ring of Fire activity; final USGS catalog updates through April 19 will determine resolution based on reviewed moment magnitudes.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСколько 5,5 и выше землетрясений 13 апреля - 19 апреля?
Сколько 5,5 и выше землетрясений 13 апреля - 19 апреля?
>9 37%
8 16%
9 15%
7 13%
$128,504 Объем
$128,504 Объем
19 апр. 2026 г.
≤3
<1%
4
<1%
5
4%
6
7%
7
13%
8
16%
9
15%
>9
37%
>9 37%
8 16%
9 15%
7 13%
$128,504 Объем
$128,504 Объем
19 апр. 2026 г.
≤3
$84,492 Объем
<1%
4
$11,191 Объем
<1%
5
$3,244 Объем
4%
6
$1,790 Объем
7%
7
$2,233 Объем
13%
8
$2,961 Объем
16%
9
$1,788 Объем
15%
>9
$20,804 Объем
37%
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between April 13, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and April 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 38% probability for more than nine magnitude 5.5 or greater earthquakes worldwide from April 13-19, reflecting the historical global baseline of roughly 8-12 such events per week per USGS statistics, governed by the Gutenberg-Richter frequency-magnitude relation on tectonic fault systems. As of April 16, USGS data confirms at least four qualifying events: M5.7 near Silver Springs, Nevada on April 13; M5.5 near Neiafu, Tonga on April 13; M5.5 Pagan region, Northern Mariana Islands on April 13; and M6.0 south of Kermadec Islands on April 16, with three days left in the window. No unusual seismic swarms or precursors elevate risks beyond steady Ring of Fire activity; final USGS catalog updates through April 19 will determine resolution based on reviewed moment magnitudes.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between April 13, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and April 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Открытие рынка: Apr 10, 2026, 4:26 PM ET
Объем
$128,504Дата окончания
19 апр. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 10, 2026, 4:26 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between April 13, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and April 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 38% probability for more than nine magnitude 5.5 or greater earthquakes worldwide from April 13-19, reflecting the historical global baseline of roughly 8-12 such events per week per USGS statistics, governed by the Gutenberg-Richter frequency-magnitude relation on tectonic fault systems. As of April 16, USGS data confirms at least four qualifying events: M5.7 near Silver Springs, Nevada on April 13; M5.5 near Neiafu, Tonga on April 13; M5.5 Pagan region, Northern Mariana Islands on April 13; and M6.0 south of Kermadec Islands on April 16, with three days left in the window. No unusual seismic swarms or precursors elevate risks beyond steady Ring of Fire activity; final USGS catalog updates through April 19 will determine resolution based on reviewed moment magnitudes.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between April 13, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and April 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Объем
$128,504Дата окончания
19 апр. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 10, 2026, 4:26 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 38% probability for more than nine magnitude 5.5 or greater earthquakes worldwide from April 13-19, reflecting the historical global baseline of roughly 8-12 such events per week per USGS statistics, governed by the Gutenberg-Richter frequency-magnitude relation on tectonic fault systems. As of April 16, USGS data confirms at least four qualifying events: M5.7 near Silver Springs, Nevada on April 13; M5.5 near Neiafu, Tonga on April 13; M5.5 Pagan region, Northern Mariana Islands on April 13; and M6.0 south of Kermadec Islands on April 16, with three days left in the window. No unusual seismic swarms or precursors elevate risks beyond steady Ring of Fire activity; final USGS catalog updates through April 19 will determine resolution based on reviewed moment magnitudes.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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