Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 50% implied probability to a Cape Town high of 23°C or higher on April 18, driven by South African Weather Service (SAWS) forecasts charting potential maxima near that threshold amid lingering high-pressure influences, contrasting with private models like AccuWeather projecting 16–21°C under cloudy skies and isolated showers from a recent cold front that cooled the region since April 14–15 (dropping highs from 21°C+). A 25.5% chance for 13°C or below reflects risks of persistent southerly winds, cloud cover, and frontal remnants suppressing daytime heating, while mid-range outcomes (15–19°C) cluster at ~19.5% each per model spreads. April climatology averages 22°C highs, but inherent short-term forecast uncertainty persists; monitor SAWS updates and new ECMWF/GFS runs by April 17 for resolution shifts.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоHighest temperature in Cape Town on April 18?
Highest temperature in Cape Town on April 18?
16°C 34%
18°C 33%
23°C or higher 26%
17°C 21%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
18 апр. 2026 г.
13°C or below
20%
14°C
12%
15°C
20%
16°C
34%
17°C
21%
18°C
33%
19°C
20%
20°C
18%
21°C
15%
22°C
12%
23°C or higher
26%
16°C 34%
18°C 33%
23°C or higher 26%
17°C 21%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
18 апр. 2026 г.
13°C or below
$80 Объем
20%
14°C
$0 Объем
12%
15°C
$0 Объем
20%
16°C
$5 Объем
34%
17°C
$0 Объем
21%
18°C
$0 Объем
33%
19°C
$0 Объем
20%
20°C
$0 Объем
18%
21°C
$0 Объем
15%
22°C
$0 Объем
12%
23°C or higher
$0 Объем
26%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Cape Town International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 50% implied probability to a Cape Town high of 23°C or higher on April 18, driven by South African Weather Service (SAWS) forecasts charting potential maxima near that threshold amid lingering high-pressure influences, contrasting with private models like AccuWeather projecting 16–21°C under cloudy skies and isolated showers from a recent cold front that cooled the region since April 14–15 (dropping highs from 21°C+). A 25.5% chance for 13°C or below reflects risks of persistent southerly winds, cloud cover, and frontal remnants suppressing daytime heating, while mid-range outcomes (15–19°C) cluster at ~19.5% each per model spreads. April climatology averages 22°C highs, but inherent short-term forecast uncertainty persists; monitor SAWS updates and new ECMWF/GFS runs by April 17 for resolution shifts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Cape Town International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Cape Town International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Apr 16, 2026, 2:04 AM ET
Объем
$5Дата окончания
18 апр. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 16, 2026, 2:04 AM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACTResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Cape Town International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 50% implied probability to a Cape Town high of 23°C or higher on April 18, driven by South African Weather Service (SAWS) forecasts charting potential maxima near that threshold amid lingering high-pressure influences, contrasting with private models like AccuWeather projecting 16–21°C under cloudy skies and isolated showers from a recent cold front that cooled the region since April 14–15 (dropping highs from 21°C+). A 25.5% chance for 13°C or below reflects risks of persistent southerly winds, cloud cover, and frontal remnants suppressing daytime heating, while mid-range outcomes (15–19°C) cluster at ~19.5% each per model spreads. April climatology averages 22°C highs, but inherent short-term forecast uncertainty persists; monitor SAWS updates and new ECMWF/GFS runs by April 17 for resolution shifts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Cape Town International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Cape Town International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Объем
$5Дата окончания
18 апр. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 16, 2026, 2:04 AM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 50% implied probability to a Cape Town high of 23°C or higher on April 18, driven by South African Weather Service (SAWS) forecasts charting potential maxima near that threshold amid lingering high-pressure influences, contrasting with private models like AccuWeather projecting 16–21°C under cloudy skies and isolated showers from a recent cold front that cooled the region since April 14–15 (dropping highs from 21°C+). A 25.5% chance for 13°C or below reflects risks of persistent southerly winds, cloud cover, and frontal remnants suppressing daytime heating, while mid-range outcomes (15–19°C) cluster at ~19.5% each per model spreads. April climatology averages 22°C highs, but inherent short-term forecast uncertainty persists; monitor SAWS updates and new ECMWF/GFS runs by April 17 for resolution shifts.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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