Kentucky's 5th congressional district, anchored in rural eastern Kentucky's Appalachian coalfields, maintains a deep Republican structural advantage reflected in its R+32 Cook Partisan Voting Index and consistent double-digit margins for GOP candidates. Incumbent Hal Rogers, first elected in 1980 and seeking a 24th term, secured the Republican nomination in the May 2026 primary with roughly 77 percent of the vote, facing only token primary opposition. The Democratic nominee, Ned Pillersdorf, operates in a district where registered Republicans dominate turnout and where no Democratic candidate has mounted a serious general-election challenge in decades. With the November 3 general election approaching, trader consensus at 95 percent Republican probability aligns with the seat's historical base rates and limited Democratic infrastructure. Late developments that could narrow the gap remain narrow in scope, primarily a major personal or ethical scandal involving Rogers or an unforeseen national political shift capable of boosting Democratic turnout in this low-population, high-rural-turnout district.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоKY-05 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей
KY-05 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей
$30,258 Объем
$30,258 Объем
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Республиканская партия
95%
Демократическая партия
6%
$30,258 Объем
$30,258 Объем
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Республиканская партия
$19,432 Объем
95%
Демократическая партия
$10,826 Объем
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KY-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Kentucky's 5th congressional district, anchored in rural eastern Kentucky's Appalachian coalfields, maintains a deep Republican structural advantage reflected in its R+32 Cook Partisan Voting Index and consistent double-digit margins for GOP candidates. Incumbent Hal Rogers, first elected in 1980 and seeking a 24th term, secured the Republican nomination in the May 2026 primary with roughly 77 percent of the vote, facing only token primary opposition. The Democratic nominee, Ned Pillersdorf, operates in a district where registered Republicans dominate turnout and where no Democratic candidate has mounted a serious general-election challenge in decades. With the November 3 general election approaching, trader consensus at 95 percent Republican probability aligns with the seat's historical base rates and limited Democratic infrastructure. Late developments that could narrow the gap remain narrow in scope, primarily a major personal or ethical scandal involving Rogers or an unforeseen national political shift capable of boosting Democratic turnout in this low-population, high-rural-turnout district.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KY-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Открытие рынка: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Объем
$30,258Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KY-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Kentucky's 5th congressional district, anchored in rural eastern Kentucky's Appalachian coalfields, maintains a deep Republican structural advantage reflected in its R+32 Cook Partisan Voting Index and consistent double-digit margins for GOP candidates. Incumbent Hal Rogers, first elected in 1980 and seeking a 24th term, secured the Republican nomination in the May 2026 primary with roughly 77 percent of the vote, facing only token primary opposition. The Democratic nominee, Ned Pillersdorf, operates in a district where registered Republicans dominate turnout and where no Democratic candidate has mounted a serious general-election challenge in decades. With the November 3 general election approaching, trader consensus at 95 percent Republican probability aligns with the seat's historical base rates and limited Democratic infrastructure. Late developments that could narrow the gap remain narrow in scope, primarily a major personal or ethical scandal involving Rogers or an unforeseen national political shift capable of boosting Democratic turnout in this low-population, high-rural-turnout district.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KY-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Объем
$30,258Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Kentucky's 5th congressional district, anchored in rural eastern Kentucky's Appalachian coalfields, maintains a deep Republican structural advantage reflected in its R+32 Cook Partisan Voting Index and consistent double-digit margins for GOP candidates. Incumbent Hal Rogers, first elected in 1980 and seeking a 24th term, secured the Republican nomination in the May 2026 primary with roughly 77 percent of the vote, facing only token primary opposition. The Democratic nominee, Ned Pillersdorf, operates in a district where registered Republicans dominate turnout and where no Democratic candidate has mounted a serious general-election challenge in decades. With the November 3 general election approaching, trader consensus at 95 percent Republican probability aligns with the seat's historical base rates and limited Democratic infrastructure. Late developments that could narrow the gap remain narrow in scope, primarily a major personal or ethical scandal involving Rogers or an unforeseen national political shift capable of boosting Democratic turnout in this low-population, high-rural-turnout district.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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