Preliminary ERA5 reanalysis data through mid-April 2026 shows global near-surface air temperatures tracking at an anomaly positioning the month for third hottest April on record—behind April 2024's record and April 2025's second place—driving the 66% market-implied probability for that outcome among traders wagering real capital. Fading La Niña conditions, now transitioning to ENSO-neutral per NOAA's April 9 update, have moderated warmth relative to prior El Niño peaks, while persistent ocean heat content keeps anomalies elevated around 0.5–0.6°C above the 1991–2020 baseline. Recent March 2026 rankings as fourth-warmest (Copernicus) reinforce this trajectory. Final confirmation awaits full-month ERA5 data and agency bulletins in early May, with upside risk for second place if late-April surges occur.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi2026 1, 2, 3 Nisan kayıtlardaki en sıcak mı?
2026 1, 2, 3 Nisan kayıtlardaki en sıcak mı?
En sıcak 3. 71%
En sıcak 2. 16%
4. veya daha düşük 11%
En sıcak 1. 4.7%
$71,259 Hac.
$71,259 Hac.
10 May 2026
En sıcak 1.
5%
En sıcak 2.
16%
En sıcak 3.
71%
4. veya daha düşük
11%
En sıcak 3. 71%
En sıcak 2. 16%
4. veya daha düşük 11%
En sıcak 1. 4.7%
$71,259 Hac.
$71,259 Hac.
10 May 2026
En sıcak 1.
$7,377 Hac.
5%
En sıcak 2.
$21,077 Hac.
16%
En sıcak 3.
$14,459 Hac.
71%
4. veya daha düşük
$28,346 Hac.
11%
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 versus the data points available for all other Aprils on record.
Note: If April 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Preliminary ERA5 reanalysis data through mid-April 2026 shows global near-surface air temperatures tracking at an anomaly positioning the month for third hottest April on record—behind April 2024's record and April 2025's second place—driving the 66% market-implied probability for that outcome among traders wagering real capital. Fading La Niña conditions, now transitioning to ENSO-neutral per NOAA's April 9 update, have moderated warmth relative to prior El Niño peaks, while persistent ocean heat content keeps anomalies elevated around 0.5–0.6°C above the 1991–2020 baseline. Recent March 2026 rankings as fourth-warmest (Copernicus) reinforce this trajectory. Final confirmation awaits full-month ERA5 data and agency bulletins in early May, with upside risk for second place if late-April surges occur.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 versus the data points available for all other Aprils on record.
Note: If April 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If April 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Piyasa Açıldı: Mar 24, 2026, 6:05 PM ET
Hacim
$71,259Bitiş Tarihi
10 May 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Mar 24, 2026, 6:05 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 versus the data points available for all other Aprils on record.
Note: If April 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Preliminary ERA5 reanalysis data through mid-April 2026 shows global near-surface air temperatures tracking at an anomaly positioning the month for third hottest April on record—behind April 2024's record and April 2025's second place—driving the 66% market-implied probability for that outcome among traders wagering real capital. Fading La Niña conditions, now transitioning to ENSO-neutral per NOAA's April 9 update, have moderated warmth relative to prior El Niño peaks, while persistent ocean heat content keeps anomalies elevated around 0.5–0.6°C above the 1991–2020 baseline. Recent March 2026 rankings as fourth-warmest (Copernicus) reinforce this trajectory. Final confirmation awaits full-month ERA5 data and agency bulletins in early May, with upside risk for second place if late-April surges occur.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 versus the data points available for all other Aprils on record.
Note: If April 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If April 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Hacim
$71,259Bitiş Tarihi
10 May 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Mar 24, 2026, 6:05 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Preliminary ERA5 reanalysis data through mid-April 2026 shows global near-surface air temperatures tracking at an anomaly positioning the month for third hottest April on record—behind April 2024's record and April 2025's second place—driving the 66% market-implied probability for that outcome among traders wagering real capital. Fading La Niña conditions, now transitioning to ENSO-neutral per NOAA's April 9 update, have moderated warmth relative to prior El Niño peaks, while persistent ocean heat content keeps anomalies elevated around 0.5–0.6°C above the 1991–2020 baseline. Recent March 2026 rankings as fourth-warmest (Copernicus) reinforce this trajectory. Final confirmation awaits full-month ERA5 data and agency bulletins in early May, with upside risk for second place if late-April surges occur.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi
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