Preliminary ERA5 reanalysis data for the first half of April 2026 shows global surface air temperatures tracking at levels likely to rank the full month as the third-hottest April on record, behind El Niño-fueled peaks of 2024 and 2023, fueling trader consensus at 63% implied probability for that outcome. Persistently elevated sea surface temperatures, second-highest for March at 0.44°C above 1991-2020 averages per Copernicus, provide upward pressure amid ENSO-neutral conditions (80% chance through June per NOAA), which temper chances for surpassing prior records (1st at 5.5%, 2nd at 17%). March's fourth-warmest ranking and April seasonal forecasts projecting above-average anomalies reinforce this positioning, with full-month resolution hinging on NOAA and Copernicus bulletins in early May.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi2026 1, 2, 3 Nisan kayıtlardaki en sıcak mı?
2026 1, 2, 3 Nisan kayıtlardaki en sıcak mı?
En sıcak 3. 66%
En sıcak 2. 17%
4. veya daha düşük 16%
En sıcak 1. 3.9%
$70,545 Hac.
$70,545 Hac.
10 May 2026
En sıcak 1.
4%
En sıcak 2.
17%
En sıcak 3.
66%
4. veya daha düşük
16%
En sıcak 3. 66%
En sıcak 2. 17%
4. veya daha düşük 16%
En sıcak 1. 3.9%
$70,545 Hac.
$70,545 Hac.
10 May 2026
En sıcak 1.
$7,352 Hac.
4%
En sıcak 2.
$21,052 Hac.
17%
En sıcak 3.
$14,434 Hac.
66%
4. veya daha düşük
$27,708 Hac.
16%
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 versus the data points available for all other Aprils on record.
Note: If April 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Preliminary ERA5 reanalysis data for the first half of April 2026 shows global surface air temperatures tracking at levels likely to rank the full month as the third-hottest April on record, behind El Niño-fueled peaks of 2024 and 2023, fueling trader consensus at 63% implied probability for that outcome. Persistently elevated sea surface temperatures, second-highest for March at 0.44°C above 1991-2020 averages per Copernicus, provide upward pressure amid ENSO-neutral conditions (80% chance through June per NOAA), which temper chances for surpassing prior records (1st at 5.5%, 2nd at 17%). March's fourth-warmest ranking and April seasonal forecasts projecting above-average anomalies reinforce this positioning, with full-month resolution hinging on NOAA and Copernicus bulletins in early May.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 versus the data points available for all other Aprils on record.
Note: If April 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If April 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Piyasa Açıldı: Mar 24, 2026, 6:05 PM ET
Hacim
$70,545Bitiş Tarihi
10 May 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Mar 24, 2026, 6:05 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 versus the data points available for all other Aprils on record.
Note: If April 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Preliminary ERA5 reanalysis data for the first half of April 2026 shows global surface air temperatures tracking at levels likely to rank the full month as the third-hottest April on record, behind El Niño-fueled peaks of 2024 and 2023, fueling trader consensus at 63% implied probability for that outcome. Persistently elevated sea surface temperatures, second-highest for March at 0.44°C above 1991-2020 averages per Copernicus, provide upward pressure amid ENSO-neutral conditions (80% chance through June per NOAA), which temper chances for surpassing prior records (1st at 5.5%, 2nd at 17%). March's fourth-warmest ranking and April seasonal forecasts projecting above-average anomalies reinforce this positioning, with full-month resolution hinging on NOAA and Copernicus bulletins in early May.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 versus the data points available for all other Aprils on record.
Note: If April 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If April 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Hacim
$70,545Bitiş Tarihi
10 May 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Mar 24, 2026, 6:05 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Preliminary ERA5 reanalysis data for the first half of April 2026 shows global surface air temperatures tracking at levels likely to rank the full month as the third-hottest April on record, behind El Niño-fueled peaks of 2024 and 2023, fueling trader consensus at 63% implied probability for that outcome. Persistently elevated sea surface temperatures, second-highest for March at 0.44°C above 1991-2020 averages per Copernicus, provide upward pressure amid ENSO-neutral conditions (80% chance through June per NOAA), which temper chances for surpassing prior records (1st at 5.5%, 2nd at 17%). March's fourth-warmest ranking and April seasonal forecasts projecting above-average anomalies reinforce this positioning, with full-month resolution hinging on NOAA and Copernicus bulletins in early May.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi
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