Trader consensus on Polymarket favors zero magnitude 6.5 or greater earthquakes from April 13-19 at 64.5%, driven by USGS data showing none recorded through April 16 despite comprehensive global seismic monitoring. This absence in the first four days, following a quiet period since the April 1 M7.3 near Vanuatu, aligns with historical averages of roughly one such event per week worldwide, per USGS catalogs spanning 2000-2021 (137 M6-6.9 plus ~11 M7+ annually). Earthquakes follow a Poisson distribution along plate boundaries with no reliable short-term predictors like foreshocks evident. Remaining days (April 17-19) hold uncertainty, with final resolution via USGS reviewed catalog post-period.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi13 - 19 Nisan tarihleri arasında kaç adet 6.5 veya üzeri deprem oldu?
13 - 19 Nisan tarihleri arasında kaç adet 6.5 veya üzeri deprem oldu?
0 64%
1 26%
2 8%
3 2.7%
$29,501 Hac.
$29,501 Hac.
19 Nis 2026
0
64%
1
26%
2
8%
3
3%
4
1%
5
<1%
>5
<1%
0 64%
1 26%
2 8%
3 2.7%
$29,501 Hac.
$29,501 Hac.
19 Nis 2026
0
$9,748 Hac.
64%
1
$6,910 Hac.
26%
2
$3,690 Hac.
8%
3
$1,414 Hac.
3%
4
$2,602 Hac.
1%
5
$2,139 Hac.
<1%
>5
$2,997 Hac.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between April 13, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and April 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus on Polymarket favors zero magnitude 6.5 or greater earthquakes from April 13-19 at 64.5%, driven by USGS data showing none recorded through April 16 despite comprehensive global seismic monitoring. This absence in the first four days, following a quiet period since the April 1 M7.3 near Vanuatu, aligns with historical averages of roughly one such event per week worldwide, per USGS catalogs spanning 2000-2021 (137 M6-6.9 plus ~11 M7+ annually). Earthquakes follow a Poisson distribution along plate boundaries with no reliable short-term predictors like foreshocks evident. Remaining days (April 17-19) hold uncertainty, with final resolution via USGS reviewed catalog post-period.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between April 13, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and April 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Piyasa Açıldı: Apr 10, 2026, 4:24 PM ET
Hacim
$29,501Bitiş Tarihi
19 Nis 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Apr 10, 2026, 4:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between April 13, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and April 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus on Polymarket favors zero magnitude 6.5 or greater earthquakes from April 13-19 at 64.5%, driven by USGS data showing none recorded through April 16 despite comprehensive global seismic monitoring. This absence in the first four days, following a quiet period since the April 1 M7.3 near Vanuatu, aligns with historical averages of roughly one such event per week worldwide, per USGS catalogs spanning 2000-2021 (137 M6-6.9 plus ~11 M7+ annually). Earthquakes follow a Poisson distribution along plate boundaries with no reliable short-term predictors like foreshocks evident. Remaining days (April 17-19) hold uncertainty, with final resolution via USGS reviewed catalog post-period.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between April 13, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and April 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Hacim
$29,501Bitiş Tarihi
19 Nis 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Apr 10, 2026, 4:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket favors zero magnitude 6.5 or greater earthquakes from April 13-19 at 64.5%, driven by USGS data showing none recorded through April 16 despite comprehensive global seismic monitoring. This absence in the first four days, following a quiet period since the April 1 M7.3 near Vanuatu, aligns with historical averages of roughly one such event per week worldwide, per USGS catalogs spanning 2000-2021 (137 M6-6.9 plus ~11 M7+ annually). Earthquakes follow a Poisson distribution along plate boundaries with no reliable short-term predictors like foreshocks evident. Remaining days (April 17-19) hold uncertainty, with final resolution via USGS reviewed catalog post-period.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi
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