Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 52.5% probability of zero large volcanic eruptions (Volcanic Explosivity Index, or VEI, ≥4) in 2026, driven by the absence of any such events through mid-April despite 47 confirmed eruptions worldwide per Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program data—all remaining at low VEI levels with routine alert statuses from USGS and international observatories. This aligns with historical averages of approximately 0.6 VEI≥4 eruptions annually, as documented in global databases, where most activity manifests as effusive flows or minor strombolian explosions like Kīlauea's ongoing Halemaʻumaʻu fountaining. Recent weekly reports highlight no escalation in seismic or gas indicators signaling major explosive potential, though uncertainties persist at restless sites such as Axial Seamount and Hekla; upcoming GVP updates and monitoring data could shift odds as the year progresses.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi2026 'da kaç büyük yanardağ patlaması (VEI ≥4) oldu?
2026 'da kaç büyük yanardağ patlaması (VEI ≥4) oldu?
0 53%
1 36%
2 5.8%
3 1.8%
$988,115 Hac.
$988,115 Hac.
31 Ara 2026
0
53%
1
36%
2
6%
3
2%
4
<1%
5+
1%
0 53%
1 36%
2 5.8%
3 1.8%
$988,115 Hac.
$988,115 Hac.
31 Ara 2026
0
$446,751 Hac.
53%
1
$249,985 Hac.
36%
2
$21,796 Hac.
6%
3
$10,394 Hac.
2%
4
$15,476 Hac.
<1%
5+
$243,713 Hac.
1%
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 52.5% probability of zero large volcanic eruptions (Volcanic Explosivity Index, or VEI, ≥4) in 2026, driven by the absence of any such events through mid-April despite 47 confirmed eruptions worldwide per Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program data—all remaining at low VEI levels with routine alert statuses from USGS and international observatories. This aligns with historical averages of approximately 0.6 VEI≥4 eruptions annually, as documented in global databases, where most activity manifests as effusive flows or minor strombolian explosions like Kīlauea's ongoing Halemaʻumaʻu fountaining. Recent weekly reports highlight no escalation in seismic or gas indicators signaling major explosive potential, though uncertainties persist at restless sites such as Axial Seamount and Hekla; upcoming GVP updates and monitoring data could shift odds as the year progresses.
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
Piyasa Açıldı: Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ET
Hacim
$988,115Bitiş Tarihi
31 Mar 2027Piyasa Açıldı
Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 52.5% probability of zero large volcanic eruptions (Volcanic Explosivity Index, or VEI, ≥4) in 2026, driven by the absence of any such events through mid-April despite 47 confirmed eruptions worldwide per Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program data—all remaining at low VEI levels with routine alert statuses from USGS and international observatories. This aligns with historical averages of approximately 0.6 VEI≥4 eruptions annually, as documented in global databases, where most activity manifests as effusive flows or minor strombolian explosions like Kīlauea's ongoing Halemaʻumaʻu fountaining. Recent weekly reports highlight no escalation in seismic or gas indicators signaling major explosive potential, though uncertainties persist at restless sites such as Axial Seamount and Hekla; upcoming GVP updates and monitoring data could shift odds as the year progresses.
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
Hacim
$988,115Bitiş Tarihi
31 Mar 2027Piyasa Açıldı
Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 52.5% probability of zero large volcanic eruptions (Volcanic Explosivity Index, or VEI, ≥4) in 2026, driven by the absence of any such events through mid-April despite 47 confirmed eruptions worldwide per Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program data—all remaining at low VEI levels with routine alert statuses from USGS and international observatories. This aligns with historical averages of approximately 0.6 VEI≥4 eruptions annually, as documented in global databases, where most activity manifests as effusive flows or minor strombolian explosions like Kīlauea's ongoing Halemaʻumaʻu fountaining. Recent weekly reports highlight no escalation in seismic or gas indicators signaling major explosive potential, though uncertainties persist at restless sites such as Axial Seamount and Hekla; upcoming GVP updates and monitoring data could shift odds as the year progresses.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi
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