Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 61% implied probability for "Yes," reflecting the absence of any disqualifying events through mid-April 2026, including no U.S. invasion of Iran despite Strait of Hormuz tensions and ongoing ceasefire negotiations, President Trump's continued tenure with recent executive actions on April 15, and Xi Jinping's active diplomacy via a four-point Middle East peace proposal on April 14. Bitcoin trades steadily around $74,000, far from $1 million or $10,000 thresholds, while no Russian incursions into NATO countries, Iranian regime change, or qualifying natural disasters like a 9.0 earthquake or VEI 6 eruption have occurred. November 2026 midterms represent a key risk for Republican Senate supermajority, but current polling shows no clear path.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · GüncellendiHiçbir Şey Olmaz: 2026
Hiçbir Şey Olmaz: 2026
Evet
$493,524 Hac.
$493,524 Hac.
31 Ara 2026
Evet
$493,524 Hac.
$493,524 Hac.
31 Ara 2026
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdfTrader consensus on Polymarket prices a 61% implied probability for "Yes," reflecting the absence of any disqualifying events through mid-April 2026, including no U.S. invasion of Iran despite Strait of Hormuz tensions and ongoing ceasefire negotiations, President Trump's continued tenure with recent executive actions on April 15, and Xi Jinping's active diplomacy via a four-point Middle East peace proposal on April 14. Bitcoin trades steadily around $74,000, far from $1 million or $10,000 thresholds, while no Russian incursions into NATO countries, Iranian regime change, or qualifying natural disasters like a 9.0 earthquake or VEI 6 eruption have occurred. November 2026 midterms represent a key risk for Republican Senate supermajority, but current polling shows no clear path.
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
Piyasa Açıldı: Jan 6, 2026, 5:47 PM ET
Hacim
$493,524Bitiş Tarihi
31 Ara 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Jan 6, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdfTrader consensus on Polymarket prices a 61% implied probability for "Yes," reflecting the absence of any disqualifying events through mid-April 2026, including no U.S. invasion of Iran despite Strait of Hormuz tensions and ongoing ceasefire negotiations, President Trump's continued tenure with recent executive actions on April 15, and Xi Jinping's active diplomacy via a four-point Middle East peace proposal on April 14. Bitcoin trades steadily around $74,000, far from $1 million or $10,000 thresholds, while no Russian incursions into NATO countries, Iranian regime change, or qualifying natural disasters like a 9.0 earthquake or VEI 6 eruption have occurred. November 2026 midterms represent a key risk for Republican Senate supermajority, but current polling shows no clear path.
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
Hacim
$493,524Bitiş Tarihi
31 Ara 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Jan 6, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 61% implied probability for "Yes," reflecting the absence of any disqualifying events through mid-April 2026, including no U.S. invasion of Iran despite Strait of Hormuz tensions and ongoing ceasefire negotiations, President Trump's continued tenure with recent executive actions on April 15, and Xi Jinping's active diplomacy via a four-point Middle East peace proposal on April 14. Bitcoin trades steadily around $74,000, far from $1 million or $10,000 thresholds, while no Russian incursions into NATO countries, Iranian regime change, or qualifying natural disasters like a 9.0 earthquake or VEI 6 eruption have occurred. November 2026 midterms represent a key risk for Republican Senate supermajority, but current polling shows no clear path.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi
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