Trader consensus prices an 89.5% implied probability on "No" Category 5 hurricane—defined by the Saffir-Simpson scale as sustained winds of 157 mph or higher—making landfall on the U.S. mainland before 2027, reflecting the event's extreme rarity and subdued 2026 seasonal outlook. Only four such landfalls have occurred since 1851, the last being Hurricane Michael in 2018 along Florida's Gulf Coast. The hyperactive 2025 Atlantic season produced three Category 5 storms (Erin, Humberto, Melissa) per National Hurricane Center records, yet none struck the U.S., with Melissa hitting Jamaica instead. Colorado State University and NOAA preseason forecasts for 2026 predict below-normal activity—13 named storms, six hurricanes, two majors—due to an emerging El Niño (61% chance per NOAA Climate Prediction Center) that boosts upper-level wind shear, hindering intensification. While rapid intensification remains a risk if shear eases, the next catalyst is the June 1 season start and initial model runs.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · GüncellendiKategori 5 kasırgalarından herhangi biri 2027 'den önce ABD'de karaya çıkacak mı?
Kategori 5 kasırgalarından herhangi biri 2027 'den önce ABD'de karaya çıkacak mı?
Evet
$131,442 Hac.
$131,442 Hac.
31 Ara 2026
Evet
$131,442 Hac.
$131,442 Hac.
31 Ara 2026
For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.Trader consensus prices an 89.5% implied probability on "No" Category 5 hurricane—defined by the Saffir-Simpson scale as sustained winds of 157 mph or higher—making landfall on the U.S. mainland before 2027, reflecting the event's extreme rarity and subdued 2026 seasonal outlook. Only four such landfalls have occurred since 1851, the last being Hurricane Michael in 2018 along Florida's Gulf Coast. The hyperactive 2025 Atlantic season produced three Category 5 storms (Erin, Humberto, Melissa) per National Hurricane Center records, yet none struck the U.S., with Melissa hitting Jamaica instead. Colorado State University and NOAA preseason forecasts for 2026 predict below-normal activity—13 named storms, six hurricanes, two majors—due to an emerging El Niño (61% chance per NOAA Climate Prediction Center) that boosts upper-level wind shear, hindering intensification. While rapid intensification remains a risk if shear eases, the next catalyst is the June 1 season start and initial model runs.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
Piyasa Açıldı: Dec 31, 2025, 12:09 PM ET
Hacim
$131,442Bitiş Tarihi
31 Ara 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Dec 31, 2025, 12:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.Trader consensus prices an 89.5% implied probability on "No" Category 5 hurricane—defined by the Saffir-Simpson scale as sustained winds of 157 mph or higher—making landfall on the U.S. mainland before 2027, reflecting the event's extreme rarity and subdued 2026 seasonal outlook. Only four such landfalls have occurred since 1851, the last being Hurricane Michael in 2018 along Florida's Gulf Coast. The hyperactive 2025 Atlantic season produced three Category 5 storms (Erin, Humberto, Melissa) per National Hurricane Center records, yet none struck the U.S., with Melissa hitting Jamaica instead. Colorado State University and NOAA preseason forecasts for 2026 predict below-normal activity—13 named storms, six hurricanes, two majors—due to an emerging El Niño (61% chance per NOAA Climate Prediction Center) that boosts upper-level wind shear, hindering intensification. While rapid intensification remains a risk if shear eases, the next catalyst is the June 1 season start and initial model runs.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
Hacim
$131,442Bitiş Tarihi
31 Ara 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Dec 31, 2025, 12:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices an 89.5% implied probability on "No" Category 5 hurricane—defined by the Saffir-Simpson scale as sustained winds of 157 mph or higher—making landfall on the U.S. mainland before 2027, reflecting the event's extreme rarity and subdued 2026 seasonal outlook. Only four such landfalls have occurred since 1851, the last being Hurricane Michael in 2018 along Florida's Gulf Coast. The hyperactive 2025 Atlantic season produced three Category 5 storms (Erin, Humberto, Melissa) per National Hurricane Center records, yet none struck the U.S., with Melissa hitting Jamaica instead. Colorado State University and NOAA preseason forecasts for 2026 predict below-normal activity—13 named storms, six hurricanes, two majors—due to an emerging El Niño (61% chance per NOAA Climate Prediction Center) that boosts upper-level wind shear, hindering intensification. While rapid intensification remains a risk if shear eases, the next catalyst is the June 1 season start and initial model runs.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi
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