Trader consensus prices a 89% implied probability on a Republican Party win in Iowa's 4th Congressional District House race, reflecting the district's strong R+15 Cook Partisan Voter Index and history of lopsided GOP victories—incumbent Randy Feenstra won by 34 points in 2024 before vacating for a gubernatorial bid. Multiple forecasters rate it Solid or Safe Republican despite the open seat, bolstered by Republican Chris McGowan's fundraising lead ($627,000 receipts) in the June 2 primary against a thinner Democratic field featuring Dave Dawson, Stephanie Steiner, and Ashley WolfTornabane amid recent withdrawals like Ryan Melton and ballot access hurdles resolved in late March. No public polling exists, but structural advantages favor the GOP nominee barring scandals or primary turbulence.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtIA-04 House Election Winner
IA-04 House Election Winner
MỚI
MỚI
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
89%
Democratic Party
10%
MỚI
MỚI
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
$1,022 KL.
89%
Democratic Party
$1,160 KL.
10%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus prices a 89% implied probability on a Republican Party win in Iowa's 4th Congressional District House race, reflecting the district's strong R+15 Cook Partisan Voter Index and history of lopsided GOP victories—incumbent Randy Feenstra won by 34 points in 2024 before vacating for a gubernatorial bid. Multiple forecasters rate it Solid or Safe Republican despite the open seat, bolstered by Republican Chris McGowan's fundraising lead ($627,000 receipts) in the June 2 primary against a thinner Democratic field featuring Dave Dawson, Stephanie Steiner, and Ashley WolfTornabane amid recent withdrawals like Ryan Melton and ballot access hurdles resolved in late March. No public polling exists, but structural advantages favor the GOP nominee barring scandals or primary turbulence.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Thị trường mở: Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ET
Khối lượng
$2,182Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus prices a 89% implied probability on a Republican Party win in Iowa's 4th Congressional District House race, reflecting the district's strong R+15 Cook Partisan Voter Index and history of lopsided GOP victories—incumbent Randy Feenstra won by 34 points in 2024 before vacating for a gubernatorial bid. Multiple forecasters rate it Solid or Safe Republican despite the open seat, bolstered by Republican Chris McGowan's fundraising lead ($627,000 receipts) in the June 2 primary against a thinner Democratic field featuring Dave Dawson, Stephanie Steiner, and Ashley WolfTornabane amid recent withdrawals like Ryan Melton and ballot access hurdles resolved in late March. No public polling exists, but structural advantages favor the GOP nominee barring scandals or primary turbulence.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Khối lượng
$2,182Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus prices a 89% implied probability on a Republican Party win in Iowa's 4th Congressional District House race, reflecting the district's strong R+15 Cook Partisan Voter Index and history of lopsided GOP victories—incumbent Randy Feenstra won by 34 points in 2024 before vacating for a gubernatorial bid. Multiple forecasters rate it Solid or Safe Republican despite the open seat, bolstered by Republican Chris McGowan's fundraising lead ($627,000 receipts) in the June 2 primary against a thinner Democratic field featuring Dave Dawson, Stephanie Steiner, and Ashley WolfTornabane amid recent withdrawals like Ryan Melton and ballot access hurdles resolved in late March. No public polling exists, but structural advantages favor the GOP nominee barring scandals or primary turbulence.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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