Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects deep uncertainty in short-range forecast models for Chengdu's highest temperature on April 18, with ensemble spreads pitting persistent low-level stratus clouds—lingering from April 16's overcast 23°C high—against partial clearing and warm air advection expected on April 17 (China Meteorological Administration forecast: 30°C high, cloudy). This bimodal sentiment ties implied probabilities at 35.5% for both 23°C and 31°C, as GFS and ECMWF runs diverge on cloud cover dissipation in the humid Sichuan Basin, where inversions often cap spring highs near historical April averages of 22–25°C. Key differentiators include frontal boundary timing and subsidence strength; watch CMA updates and satellite moisture imagery for resolution shifts ahead of the event.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於Highest temperature in Chengdu on April 18?
Highest temperature in Chengdu on April 18?
23°C 36%
31°C 36%
32°C or higher 26%
26°C 20%
最新
最新
2026-04-18
22°C or below
3%
23°C
36%
24°C
16%
25°C
19%
26°C
20%
27°C
20%
28°C
20%
29°C
19%
30°C
16%
31°C
36%
32°C or higher
26%
23°C 36%
31°C 36%
32°C or higher 26%
26°C 20%
最新
最新
2026-04-18
22°C or below
$0 交易量
3%
23°C
$0 交易量
36%
24°C
$0 交易量
16%
25°C
$0 交易量
19%
26°C
$0 交易量
20%
27°C
$0 交易量
20%
28°C
$0 交易量
20%
29°C
$0 交易量
19%
30°C
$0 交易量
16%
31°C
$0 交易量
36%
32°C or higher
$0 交易量
26%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects deep uncertainty in short-range forecast models for Chengdu's highest temperature on April 18, with ensemble spreads pitting persistent low-level stratus clouds—lingering from April 16's overcast 23°C high—against partial clearing and warm air advection expected on April 17 (China Meteorological Administration forecast: 30°C high, cloudy). This bimodal sentiment ties implied probabilities at 35.5% for both 23°C and 31°C, as GFS and ECMWF runs diverge on cloud cover dissipation in the humid Sichuan Basin, where inversions often cap spring highs near historical April averages of 22–25°C. Key differentiators include frontal boundary timing and subsidence strength; watch CMA updates and satellite moisture imagery for resolution shifts ahead of the event.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間： Apr 16, 2026, 1:16 AM ET
交易量
$0結束日期
2026-04-18市場開放時間
Apr 16, 2026, 1:16 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects deep uncertainty in short-range forecast models for Chengdu's highest temperature on April 18, with ensemble spreads pitting persistent low-level stratus clouds—lingering from April 16's overcast 23°C high—against partial clearing and warm air advection expected on April 17 (China Meteorological Administration forecast: 30°C high, cloudy). This bimodal sentiment ties implied probabilities at 35.5% for both 23°C and 31°C, as GFS and ECMWF runs diverge on cloud cover dissipation in the humid Sichuan Basin, where inversions often cap spring highs near historical April averages of 22–25°C. Key differentiators include frontal boundary timing and subsidence strength; watch CMA updates and satellite moisture imagery for resolution shifts ahead of the event.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$0結束日期
2026-04-18市場開放時間
Apr 16, 2026, 1:16 AM ETTrader consensus on Polymarket reflects deep uncertainty in short-range forecast models for Chengdu's highest temperature on April 18, with ensemble spreads pitting persistent low-level stratus clouds—lingering from April 16's overcast 23°C high—against partial clearing and warm air advection expected on April 17 (China Meteorological Administration forecast: 30°C high, cloudy). This bimodal sentiment ties implied probabilities at 35.5% for both 23°C and 31°C, as GFS and ECMWF runs diverge on cloud cover dissipation in the humid Sichuan Basin, where inversions often cap spring highs near historical April averages of 22–25°C. Key differentiators include frontal boundary timing and subsidence strength; watch CMA updates and satellite moisture imagery for resolution shifts ahead of the event.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions