Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to a 30°C high temperature in Chengdu on April 19, driven by real-time observations at Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport—the market's official resolution station—peaking exactly at 30°C amid clear skies and light winds enhancing solar heating. This aligns with a multi-day warm anomaly above late-April climatology (typically 23-25°C highs), fueled by a persistent subtropical high-pressure ridge advecting warm air masses, as confirmed by China Meteorological Administration (CMA) hourly data and ensemble model runs from ECMWF and GFS converging on low-30s potential. Realistic challenges include a late-afternoon sensor revision or overlooked microburst of insolation pushing to 31°C, though unlikely given stabilized readings; final CMA daily bulletin expected soon will lock resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於Highest temperature in Chengdu on April 19?
Highest temperature in Chengdu on April 19?
30°C 100.0%
22°C or below <1%
23°C <1%
24°C <1%
$125,715 交易量
$125,715 交易量
2026-04-19
22°C or below
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C
Yes
31°C
No
32°C or higher
No
30°C 100.0%
22°C or below <1%
23°C <1%
24°C <1%
$125,715 交易量
$125,715 交易量
2026-04-19
22°C or below
$7,429 交易量
No
23°C
$5,860 交易量
No
24°C
$6,886 交易量
No
25°C
$5,307 交易量
No
26°C
$7,356 交易量
No
27°C
$8,271 交易量
No
28°C
$10,665 交易量
No
29°C
$20,813 交易量
No
30°C
$29,872 交易量
Yes
31°C
$14,129 交易量
No
32°C or higher
$9,126 交易量
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to a 30°C high temperature in Chengdu on April 19, driven by real-time observations at Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport—the market's official resolution station—peaking exactly at 30°C amid clear skies and light winds enhancing solar heating. This aligns with a multi-day warm anomaly above late-April climatology (typically 23-25°C highs), fueled by a persistent subtropical high-pressure ridge advecting warm air masses, as confirmed by China Meteorological Administration (CMA) hourly data and ensemble model runs from ECMWF and GFS converging on low-30s potential. Realistic challenges include a late-afternoon sensor revision or overlooked microburst of insolation pushing to 31°C, though unlikely given stabilized readings; final CMA daily bulletin expected soon will lock resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間： Apr 17, 2026, 12:42 AM ET
交易量
$125,715結束日期
2026-04-19市場開放時間
Apr 17, 2026, 12:42 AM ET已提議結果: No
無爭議
最終結果: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to a 30°C high temperature in Chengdu on April 19, driven by real-time observations at Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport—the market's official resolution station—peaking exactly at 30°C amid clear skies and light winds enhancing solar heating. This aligns with a multi-day warm anomaly above late-April climatology (typically 23-25°C highs), fueled by a persistent subtropical high-pressure ridge advecting warm air masses, as confirmed by China Meteorological Administration (CMA) hourly data and ensemble model runs from ECMWF and GFS converging on low-30s potential. Realistic challenges include a late-afternoon sensor revision or overlooked microburst of insolation pushing to 31°C, though unlikely given stabilized readings; final CMA daily bulletin expected soon will lock resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$125,715結束日期
2026-04-19市場開放時間
Apr 17, 2026, 12:42 AM ET已提議結果: No
無爭議
最終結果: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to a 30°C high temperature in Chengdu on April 19, driven by real-time observations at Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport—the market's official resolution station—peaking exactly at 30°C amid clear skies and light winds enhancing solar heating. This aligns with a multi-day warm anomaly above late-April climatology (typically 23-25°C highs), fueled by a persistent subtropical high-pressure ridge advecting warm air masses, as confirmed by China Meteorological Administration (CMA) hourly data and ensemble model runs from ECMWF and GFS converging on low-30s potential. Realistic challenges include a late-afternoon sensor revision or overlooked microburst of insolation pushing to 31°C, though unlikely given stabilized readings; final CMA daily bulletin expected soon will lock resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions