Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 15°C in Istanbul on May 5, driven by official observational data from the Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) and Istanbul Airport (LTFM) METAR reports, which confirm a midday peak of 15°C amid morning lows near 12°C and limited diurnal warming. Persistent northerly winds and cloudy conditions from a cold air mass originating over the Balkans have suppressed temperatures well below the typical May average of 20°C, with hourly readings showing steady decline to 14°C by late afternoon. Scenarios challenging this include a rare late-evening measurement revision from peripheral MGM stations or unforecasted clear skies enabling minor reheating, though model consensus and current trends indicate resolution to 15°C.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於Highest temperature in Istanbul on May 5?
Highest temperature in Istanbul on May 5?
15°C 100.0%
10°C or below <1%
11°C <1%
12°C <1%
$86,048 交易量
$86,048 交易量
2026-05-05
10°C or below
No
11°C
No
12°C
No
13°C
No
14°C
No
15°C
Yes
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C or higher
No
15°C 100.0%
10°C or below <1%
11°C <1%
12°C <1%
$86,048 交易量
$86,048 交易量
2026-05-05
10°C or below
$2,311 交易量
No
11°C
$2,016 交易量
No
12°C
$3,903 交易量
No
13°C
$4,444 交易量
No
14°C
$17,819 交易量
No
15°C
$11,839 交易量
Yes
16°C
$9,105 交易量
No
17°C
$12,910 交易量
No
18°C
$11,490 交易量
No
19°C
$3,214 交易量
No
20°C or higher
$6,998 交易量
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 5 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 15°C in Istanbul on May 5, driven by official observational data from the Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) and Istanbul Airport (LTFM) METAR reports, which confirm a midday peak of 15°C amid morning lows near 12°C and limited diurnal warming. Persistent northerly winds and cloudy conditions from a cold air mass originating over the Balkans have suppressed temperatures well below the typical May average of 20°C, with hourly readings showing steady decline to 14°C by late afternoon. Scenarios challenging this include a rare late-evening measurement revision from peripheral MGM stations or unforecasted clear skies enabling minor reheating, though model consensus and current trends indicate resolution to 15°C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 5 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間： May 3, 2026, 12:08 AM ET
交易量
$86,048結束日期
2026-05-05市場開放時間
May 3, 2026, 12:08 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...已提議結果: No
無爭議
最終結果: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 5 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 15°C in Istanbul on May 5, driven by official observational data from the Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) and Istanbul Airport (LTFM) METAR reports, which confirm a midday peak of 15°C amid morning lows near 12°C and limited diurnal warming. Persistent northerly winds and cloudy conditions from a cold air mass originating over the Balkans have suppressed temperatures well below the typical May average of 20°C, with hourly readings showing steady decline to 14°C by late afternoon. Scenarios challenging this include a rare late-evening measurement revision from peripheral MGM stations or unforecasted clear skies enabling minor reheating, though model consensus and current trends indicate resolution to 15°C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 5 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$86,048結束日期
2026-05-05市場開放時間
May 3, 2026, 12:08 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...已提議結果: No
無爭議
最終結果: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 15°C in Istanbul on May 5, driven by official observational data from the Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) and Istanbul Airport (LTFM) METAR reports, which confirm a midday peak of 15°C amid morning lows near 12°C and limited diurnal warming. Persistent northerly winds and cloudy conditions from a cold air mass originating over the Balkans have suppressed temperatures well below the typical May average of 20°C, with hourly readings showing steady decline to 14°C by late afternoon. Scenarios challenging this include a rare late-evening measurement revision from peripheral MGM stations or unforecasted clear skies enabling minor reheating, though model consensus and current trends indicate resolution to 15°C.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions