Forecast models from European meteorological centers indicate a building heatwave across central Spain, with high-pressure subsidence and reduced cloud cover expected to drive Madrid's July 19 maximum into the mid-30s Celsius. Recent updates show temperatures climbing from mid-July baselines, consistent with the market's emphasis on 36°C and 37°C outcomes as the most probable. Ensemble guidance places the daily high near 34–37°C depending on exact steering flows and urban heat-island effects, while climatological July averages near 32°C provide context for the elevated risk. Updated runs over the next 48 hours will refine land-surface and boundary-layer details ahead of market resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於7月19日馬德裏氣溫最高？
7月19日馬德裏氣溫最高？
36°C 100.0%
31°C或以下 <1%
32°C <1%
33°C <1%
$76,654 交易量
$76,654 交易量
2026-07-19
31°C或以下
否
32°C
否
33°C
否
34°C
否
35°C
否
36°C
是
37°C
否
38°C
否
39°C
否
40°C
否
41°C或更高
否
36°C 100.0%
31°C或以下 <1%
32°C <1%
33°C <1%
$76,654 交易量
$76,654 交易量
2026-07-19
31°C或以下
$261 交易量
否
32°C
$458 交易量
否
33°C
$2,115 交易量
否
34°C
$9,049 交易量
否
35°C
$14,117 交易量
否
36°C
$21,533 交易量
是
37°C
$20,964 交易量
否
38°C
$4,287 交易量
否
39°C
$1,997 交易量
否
40°C
$1,583 交易量
否
41°C或更高
$291 交易量
否
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from European meteorological centers indicate a building heatwave across central Spain, with high-pressure subsidence and reduced cloud cover expected to drive Madrid's July 19 maximum into the mid-30s Celsius. Recent updates show temperatures climbing from mid-July baselines, consistent with the market's emphasis on 36°C and 37°C outcomes as the most probable. Ensemble guidance places the daily high near 34–37°C depending on exact steering flows and urban heat-island effects, while climatological July averages near 32°C provide context for the elevated risk. Updated runs over the next 48 hours will refine land-surface and boundary-layer details ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Jul 17, 2026, 1:03 AM ET
交易量
$76,654結束日期
2026-07-19市場開放時間
Jul 17, 2026, 1:03 AM ET已提議結果: 否
無爭議
最終結果: 否
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from European meteorological centers indicate a building heatwave across central Spain, with high-pressure subsidence and reduced cloud cover expected to drive Madrid's July 19 maximum into the mid-30s Celsius. Recent updates show temperatures climbing from mid-July baselines, consistent with the market's emphasis on 36°C and 37°C outcomes as the most probable. Ensemble guidance places the daily high near 34–37°C depending on exact steering flows and urban heat-island effects, while climatological July averages near 32°C provide context for the elevated risk. Updated runs over the next 48 hours will refine land-surface and boundary-layer details ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$76,654結束日期
2026-07-19市場開放時間
Jul 17, 2026, 1:03 AM ET已提議結果: 否
無爭議
最終結果: 否
Forecast models from European meteorological centers indicate a building heatwave across central Spain, with high-pressure subsidence and reduced cloud cover expected to drive Madrid's July 19 maximum into the mid-30s Celsius. Recent updates show temperatures climbing from mid-July baselines, consistent with the market's emphasis on 36°C and 37°C outcomes as the most probable. Ensemble guidance places the daily high near 34–37°C depending on exact steering flows and urban heat-island effects, while climatological July averages near 32°C provide context for the elevated risk. Updated runs over the next 48 hours will refine land-surface and boundary-layer details ahead of market resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions