Current numerical weather prediction models, including consensus outputs from major agencies, indicate a maximum temperature in Madrid on August 4 most likely reaching 33–34 °C under stable high-pressure conditions and limited cloud cover. Ensemble forecasts show modest spread, with surface observations and recent model runs supporting this narrow range rather than extremes; climatological baselines for early August average near 32 °C. Limited moisture and typical summer steering patterns reduce the chance of significant cooling or rapid warming, keeping market-implied probabilities centered on these values while allowing for minor adjustments as new 48-hour guidance arrives.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於8月4日馬德裏氣溫最高？
8月4日馬德裏氣溫最高？
34°C 55%
33°C 31%
35°C 13%
31°C 3%
最新
最新
2026-08-04
29°C或以下
<1%
30°C
1%
31°C
3%
32°C
3%
33°C
31%
34°C
55%
35°C
13%
36°C
3%
37°C
2%
38°C
1%
39°C或以上
<1%
34°C 55%
33°C 31%
35°C 13%
31°C 3%
最新
最新
2026-08-04
29°C或以下
$120 交易量
<1%
30°C
$32 交易量
1%
31°C
$24 交易量
3%
32°C
$120 交易量
3%
33°C
$834 交易量
31%
34°C
$418 交易量
55%
35°C
$349 交易量
13%
36°C
$163 交易量
3%
37°C
$142 交易量
2%
38°C
$67 交易量
1%
39°C或以上
$357 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current numerical weather prediction models, including consensus outputs from major agencies, indicate a maximum temperature in Madrid on August 4 most likely reaching 33–34 °C under stable high-pressure conditions and limited cloud cover. Ensemble forecasts show modest spread, with surface observations and recent model runs supporting this narrow range rather than extremes; climatological baselines for early August average near 32 °C. Limited moisture and typical summer steering patterns reduce the chance of significant cooling or rapid warming, keeping market-implied probabilities centered on these values while allowing for minor adjustments as new 48-hour guidance arrives.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Aug 2, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
交易量
$2,626結束日期
2026-08-04市場開放時間
Aug 2, 2026, 12:04 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current numerical weather prediction models, including consensus outputs from major agencies, indicate a maximum temperature in Madrid on August 4 most likely reaching 33–34 °C under stable high-pressure conditions and limited cloud cover. Ensemble forecasts show modest spread, with surface observations and recent model runs supporting this narrow range rather than extremes; climatological baselines for early August average near 32 °C. Limited moisture and typical summer steering patterns reduce the chance of significant cooling or rapid warming, keeping market-implied probabilities centered on these values while allowing for minor adjustments as new 48-hour guidance arrives.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$2,626結束日期
2026-08-04市場開放時間
Aug 2, 2026, 12:04 AM ETCurrent numerical weather prediction models, including consensus outputs from major agencies, indicate a maximum temperature in Madrid on August 4 most likely reaching 33–34 °C under stable high-pressure conditions and limited cloud cover. Ensemble forecasts show modest spread, with surface observations and recent model runs supporting this narrow range rather than extremes; climatological baselines for early August average near 32 °C. Limited moisture and typical summer steering patterns reduce the chance of significant cooling or rapid warming, keeping market-implied probabilities centered on these values while allowing for minor adjustments as new 48-hour guidance arrives.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions