Current forecasts from multiple models point to a high near 29°C in Madrid on September 19 under clear skies, light southeast winds, and minimal cloud cover, aligning with the market's strong weighting toward that outcome. Afternoon temperatures are projected to peak around 28–29°C after overnight lows near 18–19°C, consistent with above-average conditions for the date amid a stable high-pressure pattern. Historical September highs average 25.7°C, but recent model runs show little day-to-day variability or risk of deviation into the low 30s. Traders appear to be pricing in the consensus range while assigning low probability to outliers, with resolution hinging on official station readings expected the following day.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於9月19日馬德裏氣溫最高？
9月19日馬德裏氣溫最高？
29°C 64%
30°C 31%
28°C 9%
31°C <1%
最新
$16,287 交易量
最新
$16,287 交易量
2026-09-19
24°C或以下
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
9%
29°C
64%
30°C
31%
31°C
<1%
32°C
<1%
33°C
<1%
34°C或更高
<1%
29°C 64%
30°C 31%
28°C 9%
31°C <1%
最新
$16,287 交易量
最新
$16,287 交易量
2026-09-19
24°C或以下
$1,282 交易量
<1%
25°C
$1,268 交易量
<1%
26°C
$151 交易量
<1%
27°C
$181 交易量
<1%
28°C
$1,459 交易量
9%
29°C
$4,782 交易量
64%
30°C
$4,795 交易量
31%
31°C
$1,054 交易量
<1%
32°C
$185 交易量
<1%
33°C
$1,029 交易量
<1%
34°C或更高
$100 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from multiple models point to a high near 29°C in Madrid on September 19 under clear skies, light southeast winds, and minimal cloud cover, aligning with the market's strong weighting toward that outcome. Afternoon temperatures are projected to peak around 28–29°C after overnight lows near 18–19°C, consistent with above-average conditions for the date amid a stable high-pressure pattern. Historical September highs average 25.7°C, but recent model runs show little day-to-day variability or risk of deviation into the low 30s. Traders appear to be pricing in the consensus range while assigning low probability to outliers, with resolution hinging on official station readings expected the following day.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Sep 17, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
交易量
$16,287結束日期
2026-09-19市場開放時間
Sep 17, 2026, 12:57 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from multiple models point to a high near 29°C in Madrid on September 19 under clear skies, light southeast winds, and minimal cloud cover, aligning with the market's strong weighting toward that outcome. Afternoon temperatures are projected to peak around 28–29°C after overnight lows near 18–19°C, consistent with above-average conditions for the date amid a stable high-pressure pattern. Historical September highs average 25.7°C, but recent model runs show little day-to-day variability or risk of deviation into the low 30s. Traders appear to be pricing in the consensus range while assigning low probability to outliers, with resolution hinging on official station readings expected the following day.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$16,287結束日期
2026-09-19市場開放時間
Sep 17, 2026, 12:57 AM ETCurrent forecasts from multiple models point to a high near 29°C in Madrid on September 19 under clear skies, light southeast winds, and minimal cloud cover, aligning with the market's strong weighting toward that outcome. Afternoon temperatures are projected to peak around 28–29°C after overnight lows near 18–19°C, consistent with above-average conditions for the date amid a stable high-pressure pattern. Historical September highs average 25.7°C, but recent model runs show little day-to-day variability or risk of deviation into the low 30s. Traders appear to be pricing in the consensus range while assigning low probability to outliers, with resolution hinging on official station readings expected the following day.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions