Trader consensus on Polymarket favors 84-85°F (41.5% implied probability) as Miami's highest temperature on April 18, aligning closely with National Weather Service climatological normals of 84°F for mid-April highs at Miami International Airport. Recent observational data shows daytime highs climbing into the upper 70s°F over the past week amid dry conditions and light easterly winds, with long-range outlooks from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center indicating near-normal temperatures and below-normal rainfall through late April, supporting efficient diurnal heating under high pressure. Ensemble forecast models, including those reflected in AccuWeather guidance, project peaks in the 84-86°F range, though inherent short-term uncertainty of 2-3°F persists due to potential sea breeze influences or passing clouds. Key updates from NWS Miami's twice-daily forecast discussions on April 17 will refine trader positioning ahead of resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於Highest temperature in Miami on April 18?
Highest temperature in Miami on April 18?
84-85°F 45%
86-87°F 29%
82-83°F 21%
88-89°F 6%
73°F or below
<1%
74-75°F
<1%
76-77°F
1%
78-79°F
3%
80-81°F
5%
82-83°F
21%
84-85°F
45%
86-87°F
29%
88-89°F
6%
90-91°F
3%
92°F or higher
1%
84-85°F 45%
86-87°F 29%
82-83°F 21%
88-89°F 6%
73°F or below
<1%
74-75°F
<1%
76-77°F
1%
78-79°F
3%
80-81°F
5%
82-83°F
21%
84-85°F
45%
86-87°F
29%
88-89°F
6%
90-91°F
3%
92°F or higher
1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Miami Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間: Apr 16, 2026, 12:26 AM ET
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Miami Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Trader consensus on Polymarket favors 84-85°F (41.5% implied probability) as Miami's highest temperature on April 18, aligning closely with National Weather Service climatological normals of 84°F for mid-April highs at Miami International Airport. Recent observational data shows daytime highs climbing into the upper 70s°F over the past week amid dry conditions and light easterly winds, with long-range outlooks from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center indicating near-normal temperatures and below-normal rainfall through late April, supporting efficient diurnal heating under high pressure. Ensemble forecast models, including those reflected in AccuWeather guidance, project peaks in the 84-86°F range, though inherent short-term uncertainty of 2-3°F persists due to potential sea breeze influences or passing clouds. Key updates from NWS Miami's twice-daily forecast discussions on April 17 will refine trader positioning ahead of resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions