Latest ensemble forecasts from ECMWF, GFS, and Météo-France position a high temperature of 17°C in Paris on April 17 as the leading outcome at 50% market-implied probability, reflecting trader consensus on mild spring conditions under westerly Atlantic flows delivering cool, moist air masses. Over the past 48 hours, model refinements have converged on this figure after earlier runs hinted at slightly warmer peaks, influenced by persistent partial cloud cover and moderate winds capping daytime heating near climatological norms of 16–17°C for mid-April. Symmetric tail risks for 16°C or below (25.5%) and 26°C or higher (25.5%) account for potential cold snaps or unexpected ridging, though inherent short-range forecast uncertainty persists; watch daily updates from the National Meteorological Service for shifts ahead of resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於Highest temperature in Paris on April 17?
Highest temperature in Paris on April 17?
21°C 30%
22°C 28%
20°C 18%
19°C 15%
16°C or below
2%
17°C
9%
18°C
14%
19°C
15%
20°C
18%
21°C
30%
22°C
28%
23°C
12%
24°C
12%
25°C
4%
26°C or higher
4%
21°C 30%
22°C 28%
20°C 18%
19°C 15%
16°C or below
2%
17°C
9%
18°C
14%
19°C
15%
20°C
18%
21°C
30%
22°C
28%
23°C
12%
24°C
12%
25°C
4%
26°C or higher
4%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Charles de Gaulle Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/paris/LFPG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間: Apr 15, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Charles de Gaulle Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/paris/LFPG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Latest ensemble forecasts from ECMWF, GFS, and Météo-France position a high temperature of 17°C in Paris on April 17 as the leading outcome at 50% market-implied probability, reflecting trader consensus on mild spring conditions under westerly Atlantic flows delivering cool, moist air masses. Over the past 48 hours, model refinements have converged on this figure after earlier runs hinted at slightly warmer peaks, influenced by persistent partial cloud cover and moderate winds capping daytime heating near climatological norms of 16–17°C for mid-April. Symmetric tail risks for 16°C or below (25.5%) and 26°C or higher (25.5%) account for potential cold snaps or unexpected ridging, though inherent short-range forecast uncertainty persists; watch daily updates from the National Meteorological Service for shifts ahead of resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions