Recent ensemble forecasts from Météo-France and European models show a narrow spread in maximum temperatures for Paris on August 4, with most runs clustering near 31–33°C under a mix of high pressure and limited Atlantic moisture. This drives the tight market distribution, as 32°C holds the highest implied probability while 31°C and 33°C remain competitive. Key differentiating factors include subtle variations in boundary-layer mixing, daytime cloud cover, and low-level wind direction that can shift peak readings by 1–2°C. Current conditions following late-July heat episodes add modest instability, keeping resolution criteria sensitive to the final 48-hour model updates and any late adjustments in the 2-meter temperature fields. Traders monitor official Paris-Montsouris observations for settlement, where even small steering-pattern changes could favor adjacent outcomes.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於8月4日巴黎最高溫度？
8月4日巴黎最高溫度？
32°C 34%
31°C 27%
33°C 19%
34°C 11%
最新
最新
2026-08-04
29°C or below
6%
30°C
10%
31°C
27%
32°C
34%
33°C
19%
34°C
11%
35°C
3%
36°C
1%
37°C
<1%
38°C
<1%
39°C or higher
<1%
32°C 34%
31°C 27%
33°C 19%
34°C 11%
最新
最新
2026-08-04
29°C or below
$19 交易量
6%
30°C
$0 交易量
10%
31°C
$28 交易量
27%
32°C
$6 交易量
34%
33°C
$0 交易量
19%
34°C
$0 交易量
11%
35°C
$0 交易量
3%
36°C
$20 交易量
1%
37°C
$0 交易量
<1%
38°C
$0 交易量
<1%
39°C or higher
$0 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from Météo-France and European models show a narrow spread in maximum temperatures for Paris on August 4, with most runs clustering near 31–33°C under a mix of high pressure and limited Atlantic moisture. This drives the tight market distribution, as 32°C holds the highest implied probability while 31°C and 33°C remain competitive. Key differentiating factors include subtle variations in boundary-layer mixing, daytime cloud cover, and low-level wind direction that can shift peak readings by 1–2°C. Current conditions following late-July heat episodes add modest instability, keeping resolution criteria sensitive to the final 48-hour model updates and any late adjustments in the 2-meter temperature fields. Traders monitor official Paris-Montsouris observations for settlement, where even small steering-pattern changes could favor adjacent outcomes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Aug 2, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
交易量
$73結束日期
2026-08-04市場開放時間
Aug 2, 2026, 12:02 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from Météo-France and European models show a narrow spread in maximum temperatures for Paris on August 4, with most runs clustering near 31–33°C under a mix of high pressure and limited Atlantic moisture. This drives the tight market distribution, as 32°C holds the highest implied probability while 31°C and 33°C remain competitive. Key differentiating factors include subtle variations in boundary-layer mixing, daytime cloud cover, and low-level wind direction that can shift peak readings by 1–2°C. Current conditions following late-July heat episodes add modest instability, keeping resolution criteria sensitive to the final 48-hour model updates and any late adjustments in the 2-meter temperature fields. Traders monitor official Paris-Montsouris observations for settlement, where even small steering-pattern changes could favor adjacent outcomes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$73結束日期
2026-08-04市場開放時間
Aug 2, 2026, 12:02 AM ETRecent ensemble forecasts from Météo-France and European models show a narrow spread in maximum temperatures for Paris on August 4, with most runs clustering near 31–33°C under a mix of high pressure and limited Atlantic moisture. This drives the tight market distribution, as 32°C holds the highest implied probability while 31°C and 33°C remain competitive. Key differentiating factors include subtle variations in boundary-layer mixing, daytime cloud cover, and low-level wind direction that can shift peak readings by 1–2°C. Current conditions following late-July heat episodes add modest instability, keeping resolution criteria sensitive to the final 48-hour model updates and any late adjustments in the 2-meter temperature fields. Traders monitor official Paris-Montsouris observations for settlement, where even small steering-pattern changes could favor adjacent outcomes.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions