Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Seoul's highest temperature reaching exactly 18°C on May 2, backed by official observations from the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) at stations like Jongno, where daytime readings peaked at 18°C amid persistent cloud cover that capped solar heating. This follows May 1's clearer skies yielding near 24°C highs, with forecast models from KMA and global ensembles like ECMWF initially projecting 20–22°C before revising downward on intraday satellite imagery showing thick overcast suppressing convective warming. Early May climatology typically sees highs around 20–22°C, but such cloud-induced variability is common; a realistic challenge would require rare post hoc data revisions from KMA audits, though official tallies from 9 a.m. to 5 p.m. local time confirm resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於Highest temperature in Seoul on May 2?
Highest temperature in Seoul on May 2?
18°C 100.0%
11°C或以下 <1%
12°C <1%
13°C <1%
$270,619 交易量
$270,619 交易量
2026-05-02
11°C或以下
否
12°C
否
13°C
否
14°C
否
15°C
否
16°C
否
17°C
No
18°C
Yes
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C or higher
No
18°C 100.0%
11°C或以下 <1%
12°C <1%
13°C <1%
$270,619 交易量
$270,619 交易量
2026-05-02
11°C或以下
$4,548 交易量
否
12°C
$1,072 交易量
否
13°C
$6,066 交易量
否
14°C
$5,970 交易量
否
15°C
$17,232 交易量
否
16°C
$49,059 交易量
否
17°C
$36,839 交易量
No
18°C
$32,201 交易量
Yes
19°C
$34,410 交易量
No
20°C
$31,757 交易量
No
21°C or higher
$51,466 交易量
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Seoul's highest temperature reaching exactly 18°C on May 2, backed by official observations from the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) at stations like Jongno, where daytime readings peaked at 18°C amid persistent cloud cover that capped solar heating. This follows May 1's clearer skies yielding near 24°C highs, with forecast models from KMA and global ensembles like ECMWF initially projecting 20–22°C before revising downward on intraday satellite imagery showing thick overcast suppressing convective warming. Early May climatology typically sees highs around 20–22°C, but such cloud-induced variability is common; a realistic challenge would require rare post hoc data revisions from KMA audits, though official tallies from 9 a.m. to 5 p.m. local time confirm resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間： Apr 30, 2026, 12:07 AM ET
交易量
$270,619結束日期
2026-05-02市場開放時間
Apr 30, 2026, 12:07 AM ET已提議結果: 否
無爭議
最終結果: 否
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Seoul's highest temperature reaching exactly 18°C on May 2, backed by official observations from the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) at stations like Jongno, where daytime readings peaked at 18°C amid persistent cloud cover that capped solar heating. This follows May 1's clearer skies yielding near 24°C highs, with forecast models from KMA and global ensembles like ECMWF initially projecting 20–22°C before revising downward on intraday satellite imagery showing thick overcast suppressing convective warming. Early May climatology typically sees highs around 20–22°C, but such cloud-induced variability is common; a realistic challenge would require rare post hoc data revisions from KMA audits, though official tallies from 9 a.m. to 5 p.m. local time confirm resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$270,619結束日期
2026-05-02市場開放時間
Apr 30, 2026, 12:07 AM ET已提議結果: 否
無爭議
最終結果: 否
Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Seoul's highest temperature reaching exactly 18°C on May 2, backed by official observations from the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) at stations like Jongno, where daytime readings peaked at 18°C amid persistent cloud cover that capped solar heating. This follows May 1's clearer skies yielding near 24°C highs, with forecast models from KMA and global ensembles like ECMWF initially projecting 20–22°C before revising downward on intraday satellite imagery showing thick overcast suppressing convective warming. Early May climatology typically sees highs around 20–22°C, but such cloud-induced variability is common; a realistic challenge would require rare post hoc data revisions from KMA audits, though official tallies from 9 a.m. to 5 p.m. local time confirm resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions