Ensemble forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration (CMA), European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), and Global Forecast System (GFS) models have tightly converged on a 22°C high temperature for Shanghai on April 2, driving trader consensus to near-certainty at 100% implied probability. Current observations at key stations like Xujiahui align closely, with persistent cloudy skies and light easterly winds capping daytime heating under a weak frontal pattern—above early April climatological averages of ~18°C but below 23°C thresholds. Hong Kong Observatory bulletins confirm this 12–23°C range, with mid-afternoon peaks already recorded near 22°C. Realistic challenges include unexpected partial clearing allowing minor late-day warming or station-specific measurement variances, though model ensembles show low spread and high confidence ahead of final CMA daily summary.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於Highest temperature in Shanghai on April 2?
Highest temperature in Shanghai on April 2?
22°C 100.0%
15°C or below <1%
16°C <1%
17°C <1%
$329,444 交易量
$329,444 交易量
15°C or below
No
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C
Yes
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C or higher
No
22°C 100.0%
15°C or below <1%
16°C <1%
17°C <1%
$329,444 交易量
$329,444 交易量
15°C or below
No
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C
Yes
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C or higher
No
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間: Mar 29, 2026, 3:03 PM ET
已提議結果: No
無爭議
最終結果: No
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
已提議結果: No
無爭議
最終結果: No
Ensemble forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration (CMA), European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), and Global Forecast System (GFS) models have tightly converged on a 22°C high temperature for Shanghai on April 2, driving trader consensus to near-certainty at 100% implied probability. Current observations at key stations like Xujiahui align closely, with persistent cloudy skies and light easterly winds capping daytime heating under a weak frontal pattern—above early April climatological averages of ~18°C but below 23°C thresholds. Hong Kong Observatory bulletins confirm this 12–23°C range, with mid-afternoon peaks already recorded near 22°C. Realistic challenges include unexpected partial clearing allowing minor late-day warming or station-specific measurement variances, though model ensembles show low spread and high confidence ahead of final CMA daily summary.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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