Dominant high-pressure subsidence over the western Pacific is sustaining clear to partly cloudy conditions across northern Taiwan, with strong solar heating and high humidity expected to push Taipei’s maximum temperature on August 4 toward 35–36 °C according to the latest Central Weather Administration guidance. Ensemble forecasts show limited day-to-day variability through the period, consistent with climatological early-August highs near 32–34 °C but elevated by the current synoptic pattern that produced a 36 °C reading on August 1–2. Minor model spread around afternoon convective timing introduces modest uncertainty for a 37 °C outlier or slight cooling to 34 °C, aligning with the market’s concentration of probability on the 35–37 °C brackets. Updated CWA runs and satellite monitoring of the ridge position remain the key near-term catalysts.