Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in 18°C as Tokyo's highest temperature on April 25 at 100% implied probability, driven by Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) surface observations from the official Tokyo station showing a midday peak of 18°C under partly cloudy skies. This outcome reflects reduced solar insolation from cloud cover and influence from a cooler air mass, well below the seasonal daily normal maximum of 21.7°C. Diurnal cooling has since set in with evening winds, minimizing upside risk. A realistic challenge would require an improbable late-afternoon heat burst exceeding forecasts, but current model consensus and declining temperatures make this highly unlikely before market resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於Highest temperature in Tokyo on April 25?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on April 25?
18°C 100.0%
12°C or below <1%
13°C <1%
14°C <1%
$109,028 交易量
$109,028 交易量
2026-04-25
12°C or below
No
13°C
No
14°C
No
15°C
No
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C
Yes
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C or higher
No
18°C 100.0%
12°C or below <1%
13°C <1%
14°C <1%
$109,028 交易量
$109,028 交易量
2026-04-25
12°C or below
$899 交易量
No
13°C
$1,429 交易量
No
14°C
$1,150 交易量
No
15°C
$7,823 交易量
No
16°C
$20,300 交易量
No
17°C
$12,896 交易量
No
18°C
$16,693 交易量
Yes
19°C
$14,560 交易量
No
20°C
$18,684 交易量
No
21°C
$7,959 交易量
No
22°C or higher
$6,637 交易量
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in 18°C as Tokyo's highest temperature on April 25 at 100% implied probability, driven by Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) surface observations from the official Tokyo station showing a midday peak of 18°C under partly cloudy skies. This outcome reflects reduced solar insolation from cloud cover and influence from a cooler air mass, well below the seasonal daily normal maximum of 21.7°C. Diurnal cooling has since set in with evening winds, minimizing upside risk. A realistic challenge would require an improbable late-afternoon heat burst exceeding forecasts, but current model consensus and declining temperatures make this highly unlikely before market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間： Apr 23, 2026, 12:11 AM ET
交易量
$109,028結束日期
2026-04-25市場開放時間
Apr 23, 2026, 12:11 AM ET已提議結果: No
無爭議
最終結果: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in 18°C as Tokyo's highest temperature on April 25 at 100% implied probability, driven by Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) surface observations from the official Tokyo station showing a midday peak of 18°C under partly cloudy skies. This outcome reflects reduced solar insolation from cloud cover and influence from a cooler air mass, well below the seasonal daily normal maximum of 21.7°C. Diurnal cooling has since set in with evening winds, minimizing upside risk. A realistic challenge would require an improbable late-afternoon heat burst exceeding forecasts, but current model consensus and declining temperatures make this highly unlikely before market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$109,028結束日期
2026-04-25市場開放時間
Apr 23, 2026, 12:11 AM ET已提議結果: No
無爭議
最終結果: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in 18°C as Tokyo's highest temperature on April 25 at 100% implied probability, driven by Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) surface observations from the official Tokyo station showing a midday peak of 18°C under partly cloudy skies. This outcome reflects reduced solar insolation from cloud cover and influence from a cooler air mass, well below the seasonal daily normal maximum of 21.7°C. Diurnal cooling has since set in with evening winds, minimizing upside risk. A realistic challenge would require an improbable late-afternoon heat burst exceeding forecasts, but current model consensus and declining temperatures make this highly unlikely before market resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions