**Current short-range model consensus from agencies and ensembles points to a daily maximum near 19–20°C in Warsaw on August 24, aligning with the tight market distribution.** Westerly flow under building high pressure is expected to deliver partly cloudy skies, light winds, and limited moisture, keeping temperatures close to seasonal norms without strong advection of warmer or cooler air masses. Recent cooling after mid-August warmth has stabilized conditions, while differences among GFS, ECMWF, and regional runs—mainly in cloud cover and boundary-layer mixing—create the narrow spread between 19°C and 21°C outcomes. Low precipitation risk further reduces downside volatility. Updated model runs and any shifts in the 500 hPa pattern over the next 48 hours will be the key catalysts for market movement ahead of resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於8月24日華沙的最高溫度？
8月24日華沙的最高溫度？
20°C 37%
19°C 31%
21°C 14%
18°C 12%
最新
最新
2026-08-24
15°C或以下
1%
16°C
1%
17°C
6%
18°C
12%
19°C
31%
20°C
37%
21°C
14%
22°C
5%
23°C
3%
24°C
3%
25°C或以上
2%
20°C 37%
19°C 31%
21°C 14%
18°C 12%
最新
最新
2026-08-24
15°C或以下
$5 交易量
1%
16°C
$5 交易量
1%
17°C
$35 交易量
6%
18°C
$45 交易量
12%
19°C
$96 交易量
31%
20°C
$53 交易量
37%
21°C
$12 交易量
14%
22°C
$7 交易量
5%
23°C
$19 交易量
3%
24°C
$9 交易量
3%
25°C或以上
$5 交易量
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Current short-range model consensus from agencies and ensembles points to a daily maximum near 19–20°C in Warsaw on August 24, aligning with the tight market distribution.** Westerly flow under building high pressure is expected to deliver partly cloudy skies, light winds, and limited moisture, keeping temperatures close to seasonal norms without strong advection of warmer or cooler air masses. Recent cooling after mid-August warmth has stabilized conditions, while differences among GFS, ECMWF, and regional runs—mainly in cloud cover and boundary-layer mixing—create the narrow spread between 19°C and 21°C outcomes. Low precipitation risk further reduces downside volatility. Updated model runs and any shifts in the 500 hPa pattern over the next 48 hours will be the key catalysts for market movement ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Aug 22, 2026, 1:56 AM ET
交易量
$290結束日期
2026-08-24市場開放時間
Aug 22, 2026, 1:56 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Current short-range model consensus from agencies and ensembles points to a daily maximum near 19–20°C in Warsaw on August 24, aligning with the tight market distribution.** Westerly flow under building high pressure is expected to deliver partly cloudy skies, light winds, and limited moisture, keeping temperatures close to seasonal norms without strong advection of warmer or cooler air masses. Recent cooling after mid-August warmth has stabilized conditions, while differences among GFS, ECMWF, and regional runs—mainly in cloud cover and boundary-layer mixing—create the narrow spread between 19°C and 21°C outcomes. Low precipitation risk further reduces downside volatility. Updated model runs and any shifts in the 500 hPa pattern over the next 48 hours will be the key catalysts for market movement ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$290結束日期
2026-08-24市場開放時間
Aug 22, 2026, 1:56 AM ET**Current short-range model consensus from agencies and ensembles points to a daily maximum near 19–20°C in Warsaw on August 24, aligning with the tight market distribution.** Westerly flow under building high pressure is expected to deliver partly cloudy skies, light winds, and limited moisture, keeping temperatures close to seasonal norms without strong advection of warmer or cooler air masses. Recent cooling after mid-August warmth has stabilized conditions, while differences among GFS, ECMWF, and regional runs—mainly in cloud cover and boundary-layer mixing—create the narrow spread between 19°C and 21°C outcomes. Low precipitation risk further reduces downside volatility. Updated model runs and any shifts in the 500 hPa pattern over the next 48 hours will be the key catalysts for market movement ahead of resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions