Current forecasts from multiple models, including MetService and international ensembles, indicate a mild late-winter day for Wellington on August 31 driven by northwesterly flow, with daytime highs centered around 14–15 °C amid windy conditions and limited cloud cover. This consensus supports the market’s heavy weighting toward 16 °C as the most probable peak, consistent with recent above-average readings in the region and the climatological tail that occasionally produces brief warmer spikes. Traders appear to discount cooler outcomes below 15 °C given the absence of strong southerly intrusions or significant precipitation in the latest model runs. The next official forecast updates and any revised NWP guidance ahead of the date will likely determine whether probabilities shift toward 17 °C or consolidate further around 16 °C.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於8月31日惠靈頓的最高溫度？
8月31日惠靈頓的最高溫度？
16°C 61%
17°C 26%
15°C 11%
18°C 3.7%
最新
最新
2026-08-31
11°C or below
<1%
12°C
<1%
13°C
1%
14°C
2%
15°C
11%
16°C
61%
17°C
26%
18°C
4%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C or higher
<1%
16°C 61%
17°C 26%
15°C 11%
18°C 3.7%
最新
最新
2026-08-31
11°C or below
$186 交易量
<1%
12°C
$196 交易量
<1%
13°C
$231 交易量
1%
14°C
$206 交易量
2%
15°C
$1,484 交易量
11%
16°C
$1,591 交易量
61%
17°C
$532 交易量
26%
18°C
$123 交易量
4%
19°C
$202 交易量
<1%
20°C
$196 交易量
<1%
21°C or higher
$186 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from multiple models, including MetService and international ensembles, indicate a mild late-winter day for Wellington on August 31 driven by northwesterly flow, with daytime highs centered around 14–15 °C amid windy conditions and limited cloud cover. This consensus supports the market’s heavy weighting toward 16 °C as the most probable peak, consistent with recent above-average readings in the region and the climatological tail that occasionally produces brief warmer spikes. Traders appear to discount cooler outcomes below 15 °C given the absence of strong southerly intrusions or significant precipitation in the latest model runs. The next official forecast updates and any revised NWP guidance ahead of the date will likely determine whether probabilities shift toward 17 °C or consolidate further around 16 °C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Aug 29, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
交易量
$5,133結束日期
2026-08-31市場開放時間
Aug 29, 2026, 12:56 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from multiple models, including MetService and international ensembles, indicate a mild late-winter day for Wellington on August 31 driven by northwesterly flow, with daytime highs centered around 14–15 °C amid windy conditions and limited cloud cover. This consensus supports the market’s heavy weighting toward 16 °C as the most probable peak, consistent with recent above-average readings in the region and the climatological tail that occasionally produces brief warmer spikes. Traders appear to discount cooler outcomes below 15 °C given the absence of strong southerly intrusions or significant precipitation in the latest model runs. The next official forecast updates and any revised NWP guidance ahead of the date will likely determine whether probabilities shift toward 17 °C or consolidate further around 16 °C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$5,133結束日期
2026-08-31市場開放時間
Aug 29, 2026, 12:56 AM ETCurrent forecasts from multiple models, including MetService and international ensembles, indicate a mild late-winter day for Wellington on August 31 driven by northwesterly flow, with daytime highs centered around 14–15 °C amid windy conditions and limited cloud cover. This consensus supports the market’s heavy weighting toward 16 °C as the most probable peak, consistent with recent above-average readings in the region and the climatological tail that occasionally produces brief warmer spikes. Traders appear to discount cooler outcomes below 15 °C given the absence of strong southerly intrusions or significant precipitation in the latest model runs. The next official forecast updates and any revised NWP guidance ahead of the date will likely determine whether probabilities shift toward 17 °C or consolidate further around 16 °C.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions