Recent observational data from Madrid weather stations, including official AEMET-linked monitoring, recorded a daily minimum of 16.3°C on August 27, aligning closely with model consensus from earlier runs projecting overnight lows near 15–17°C under clear to partly cloudy conditions with southwesterly flow. This evidence underpins the market's strong 90.5% implied probability for exactly 16°C as the lowest temperature. Historical August averages near 18°C and recent cooling trends further support this outcome. Only a late unforecasted drop below 15°C or significant station variance would realistically shift resolution away from the consensus.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於8月27日馬德裏最低氣溫？
8月27日馬德裏最低氣溫？
16°C 99%
14°C 1.0%
15°C 1.0%
13°C or below <1%
$2,910 交易量
$2,910 交易量
2026-08-27
13°C or below
No
14°C
No
15°C
No
16°C
Yes
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C or higher
No
16°C 99%
14°C 1.0%
15°C 1.0%
13°C or below <1%
$2,910 交易量
$2,910 交易量
2026-08-27
13°C or below
$342 交易量
No
14°C
$183 交易量
No
15°C
$270 交易量
No
16°C
$424 交易量
Yes
17°C
$719 交易量
No
18°C
$278 交易量
No
19°C
$131 交易量
No
20°C
$50 交易量
No
21°C
$100 交易量
No
22°C
$129 交易量
No
23°C or higher
$285 交易量
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent observational data from Madrid weather stations, including official AEMET-linked monitoring, recorded a daily minimum of 16.3°C on August 27, aligning closely with model consensus from earlier runs projecting overnight lows near 15–17°C under clear to partly cloudy conditions with southwesterly flow. This evidence underpins the market's strong 90.5% implied probability for exactly 16°C as the lowest temperature. Historical August averages near 18°C and recent cooling trends further support this outcome. Only a late unforecasted drop below 15°C or significant station variance would realistically shift resolution away from the consensus.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Aug 25, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
交易量
$2,910結束日期
2026-08-27市場開放時間
Aug 25, 2026, 12:30 AM ET已提議結果: No
無爭議
最終結果: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent observational data from Madrid weather stations, including official AEMET-linked monitoring, recorded a daily minimum of 16.3°C on August 27, aligning closely with model consensus from earlier runs projecting overnight lows near 15–17°C under clear to partly cloudy conditions with southwesterly flow. This evidence underpins the market's strong 90.5% implied probability for exactly 16°C as the lowest temperature. Historical August averages near 18°C and recent cooling trends further support this outcome. Only a late unforecasted drop below 15°C or significant station variance would realistically shift resolution away from the consensus.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$2,910結束日期
2026-08-27市場開放時間
Aug 25, 2026, 12:30 AM ET已提議結果: No
無爭議
最終結果: No
Recent observational data from Madrid weather stations, including official AEMET-linked monitoring, recorded a daily minimum of 16.3°C on August 27, aligning closely with model consensus from earlier runs projecting overnight lows near 15–17°C under clear to partly cloudy conditions with southwesterly flow. This evidence underpins the market's strong 90.5% implied probability for exactly 16°C as the lowest temperature. Historical August averages near 18°C and recent cooling trends further support this outcome. Only a late unforecasted drop below 15°C or significant station variance would realistically shift resolution away from the consensus.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions