Clear skies and a stable high-pressure system have driven a sharp nocturnal temperature drop across the Madrid region on August 28, 2026, with official forecasts and station observations converging on a daily minimum of 10°C. This outcome reflects radiative cooling under low humidity and light winds, consistent with AEMET and European model guidance showing the mercury bottoming near dawn after an anomalously cool daytime maximum around 21–25°C—well below seasonal normals of 30–31°C. Historical analogs for late-August minima in central Spain rarely dip this low without synoptic forcing, yet current observations confirm the trend. The market’s 99.6% implied probability on exactly 10°C incorporates this model consensus and real-time data; the only realistic challenges would involve a final official reading shifting to 9°C or 11°C from station-specific microclimates, sensor calibration, or minor forecast adjustments before resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於8月28日馬德裏最低氣溫？
8月28日馬德裏最低氣溫？
10°C 100.0%
9°C or below <1%
11°C <1%
12°C <1%
$2,216 交易量
$2,216 交易量
2026-08-28
9°C or below
<1%
10°C
100%
11°C
<1%
12°C
<1%
13°C
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C or higher
<1%
10°C 100.0%
9°C or below <1%
11°C <1%
12°C <1%
$2,216 交易量
$2,216 交易量
2026-08-28
9°C or below
$174 交易量
<1%
10°C
$387 交易量
100%
11°C
$523 交易量
<1%
12°C
$180 交易量
<1%
13°C
$196 交易量
<1%
14°C
$285 交易量
<1%
15°C
$118 交易量
<1%
16°C
$113 交易量
<1%
17°C
$100 交易量
<1%
18°C
$85 交易量
<1%
19°C or higher
$55 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Clear skies and a stable high-pressure system have driven a sharp nocturnal temperature drop across the Madrid region on August 28, 2026, with official forecasts and station observations converging on a daily minimum of 10°C. This outcome reflects radiative cooling under low humidity and light winds, consistent with AEMET and European model guidance showing the mercury bottoming near dawn after an anomalously cool daytime maximum around 21–25°C—well below seasonal normals of 30–31°C. Historical analogs for late-August minima in central Spain rarely dip this low without synoptic forcing, yet current observations confirm the trend. The market’s 99.6% implied probability on exactly 10°C incorporates this model consensus and real-time data; the only realistic challenges would involve a final official reading shifting to 9°C or 11°C from station-specific microclimates, sensor calibration, or minor forecast adjustments before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Aug 26, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
交易量
$2,216結束日期
2026-08-28市場開放時間
Aug 26, 2026, 12:30 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Clear skies and a stable high-pressure system have driven a sharp nocturnal temperature drop across the Madrid region on August 28, 2026, with official forecasts and station observations converging on a daily minimum of 10°C. This outcome reflects radiative cooling under low humidity and light winds, consistent with AEMET and European model guidance showing the mercury bottoming near dawn after an anomalously cool daytime maximum around 21–25°C—well below seasonal normals of 30–31°C. Historical analogs for late-August minima in central Spain rarely dip this low without synoptic forcing, yet current observations confirm the trend. The market’s 99.6% implied probability on exactly 10°C incorporates this model consensus and real-time data; the only realistic challenges would involve a final official reading shifting to 9°C or 11°C from station-specific microclimates, sensor calibration, or minor forecast adjustments before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$2,216結束日期
2026-08-28市場開放時間
Aug 26, 2026, 12:30 AM ETClear skies and a stable high-pressure system have driven a sharp nocturnal temperature drop across the Madrid region on August 28, 2026, with official forecasts and station observations converging on a daily minimum of 10°C. This outcome reflects radiative cooling under low humidity and light winds, consistent with AEMET and European model guidance showing the mercury bottoming near dawn after an anomalously cool daytime maximum around 21–25°C—well below seasonal normals of 30–31°C. Historical analogs for late-August minima in central Spain rarely dip this low without synoptic forcing, yet current observations confirm the trend. The market’s 99.6% implied probability on exactly 10°C incorporates this model consensus and real-time data; the only realistic challenges would involve a final official reading shifting to 9°C or 11°C from station-specific microclimates, sensor calibration, or minor forecast adjustments before resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions