**Trader consensus on the Polymarket strongly favors a 26°C minimum for Tokyo on August 8, 2026, at 99.5% implied probability.** This positioning reflects Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts issued on August 8 projecting a nighttime low of 25°C under clear-to-cloudy conditions, with recent model runs and surface observations aligning closely with 26°C as the expected bottom. August climatology shows typical overnight minima of 24–25°C amid high humidity and weak nocturnal cooling, and current atmospheric patterns—stable high pressure and limited cloud cover—support only modest temperature drops after the daytime peak near 33°C. Key upcoming data points include updated JMA briefings and final station readings from Tokyo’s official network, which resolve the market. A realistic challenge would require an unforecasted influx of cooler marine air or rapid radiative cooling under clearer skies, though these remain low-probability deviations given the established steering pattern.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於8月8日東京最低氣溫？
8月8日東京最低氣溫？
26°C 100.0%
21°C或以下 <1%
22°C <1%
23°C <1%
$9,774 交易量
$9,774 交易量
2026-08-08
21°C或以下
否
22°C
否
23°C
否
24°C
否
25°C
否
26°C
是
27°C
否
28°C
否
29°C
否
30°C
否
31°C或以上
否
26°C 100.0%
21°C或以下 <1%
22°C <1%
23°C <1%
$9,774 交易量
$9,774 交易量
2026-08-08
21°C或以下
$175 交易量
否
22°C
$238 交易量
否
23°C
$403 交易量
否
24°C
$926 交易量
否
25°C
$742 交易量
否
26°C
$1,178 交易量
是
27°C
$2,983 交易量
否
28°C
$2,328 交易量
否
29°C
$406 交易量
否
30°C
$77 交易量
否
31°C或以上
$318 交易量
否
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus on the Polymarket strongly favors a 26°C minimum for Tokyo on August 8, 2026, at 99.5% implied probability.** This positioning reflects Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts issued on August 8 projecting a nighttime low of 25°C under clear-to-cloudy conditions, with recent model runs and surface observations aligning closely with 26°C as the expected bottom. August climatology shows typical overnight minima of 24–25°C amid high humidity and weak nocturnal cooling, and current atmospheric patterns—stable high pressure and limited cloud cover—support only modest temperature drops after the daytime peak near 33°C. Key upcoming data points include updated JMA briefings and final station readings from Tokyo’s official network, which resolve the market. A realistic challenge would require an unforecasted influx of cooler marine air or rapid radiative cooling under clearer skies, though these remain low-probability deviations given the established steering pattern.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Aug 6, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
交易量
$9,774結束日期
2026-08-08市場開放時間
Aug 6, 2026, 12:30 AM ET已提議結果: 否
無爭議
最終結果: 否
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus on the Polymarket strongly favors a 26°C minimum for Tokyo on August 8, 2026, at 99.5% implied probability.** This positioning reflects Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts issued on August 8 projecting a nighttime low of 25°C under clear-to-cloudy conditions, with recent model runs and surface observations aligning closely with 26°C as the expected bottom. August climatology shows typical overnight minima of 24–25°C amid high humidity and weak nocturnal cooling, and current atmospheric patterns—stable high pressure and limited cloud cover—support only modest temperature drops after the daytime peak near 33°C. Key upcoming data points include updated JMA briefings and final station readings from Tokyo’s official network, which resolve the market. A realistic challenge would require an unforecasted influx of cooler marine air or rapid radiative cooling under clearer skies, though these remain low-probability deviations given the established steering pattern.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$9,774結束日期
2026-08-08市場開放時間
Aug 6, 2026, 12:30 AM ET已提議結果: 否
無爭議
最終結果: 否
**Trader consensus on the Polymarket strongly favors a 26°C minimum for Tokyo on August 8, 2026, at 99.5% implied probability.** This positioning reflects Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts issued on August 8 projecting a nighttime low of 25°C under clear-to-cloudy conditions, with recent model runs and surface observations aligning closely with 26°C as the expected bottom. August climatology shows typical overnight minima of 24–25°C amid high humidity and weak nocturnal cooling, and current atmospheric patterns—stable high pressure and limited cloud cover—support only modest temperature drops after the daytime peak near 33°C. Key upcoming data points include updated JMA briefings and final station readings from Tokyo’s official network, which resolve the market. A realistic challenge would require an unforecasted influx of cooler marine air or rapid radiative cooling under clearer skies, though these remain low-probability deviations given the established steering pattern.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions