Latest National Weather Service ensemble guidance positions Chicago’s August 15 high near the upper 70s to low 80s, below the 82.8 °F seasonal normal, as persistent cloud cover, easterly onshore flow off Lake Michigan, and elevated boundary-layer moisture limit daytime heating. These conditions have tightened trader consensus around the 80–81 °F and 82–83 °F bins, which together command nearly 70 % implied probability. Minor shifts in cloud timing or weak frontal passage could nudge the maximum by a degree or two, while any unexpected clearing would be needed to reach the low-80s tail. Updated short-range model runs and NWS forecast discussions remain the key near-term catalysts.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于芝加哥8月15日最高气温？
芝加哥8月15日最高气温？
80-81°F 40%
82-83°F 29%
78-79°F 13%
84-85°F 12%
最新
最新
2026-08-15
75°F或以下
1%
76-77°F
4%
78-79°F
13%
80-81°F
40%
82-83°F
29%
84-85°F
12%
86-87°F
2%
88-89°F
1%
90-91°F
<1%
92-93°F
<1%
94°F或更高
<1%
80-81°F 40%
82-83°F 29%
78-79°F 13%
84-85°F 12%
最新
最新
2026-08-15
75°F或以下
$490 交易量
1%
76-77°F
$575 交易量
4%
78-79°F
$44 交易量
13%
80-81°F
$755 交易量
40%
82-83°F
$243 交易量
29%
84-85°F
$344 交易量
12%
86-87°F
$293 交易量
2%
88-89°F
$354 交易量
1%
90-91°F
$111 交易量
<1%
92-93°F
$153 交易量
<1%
94°F或更高
$158 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest National Weather Service ensemble guidance positions Chicago’s August 15 high near the upper 70s to low 80s, below the 82.8 °F seasonal normal, as persistent cloud cover, easterly onshore flow off Lake Michigan, and elevated boundary-layer moisture limit daytime heating. These conditions have tightened trader consensus around the 80–81 °F and 82–83 °F bins, which together command nearly 70 % implied probability. Minor shifts in cloud timing or weak frontal passage could nudge the maximum by a degree or two, while any unexpected clearing would be needed to reach the low-80s tail. Updated short-range model runs and NWS forecast discussions remain the key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Aug 13, 2026, 8:56 PM ET
交易量
$3,521结束日期
2026-08-15市场开放时间
Aug 13, 2026, 8:56 PM ETThis market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest National Weather Service ensemble guidance positions Chicago’s August 15 high near the upper 70s to low 80s, below the 82.8 °F seasonal normal, as persistent cloud cover, easterly onshore flow off Lake Michigan, and elevated boundary-layer moisture limit daytime heating. These conditions have tightened trader consensus around the 80–81 °F and 82–83 °F bins, which together command nearly 70 % implied probability. Minor shifts in cloud timing or weak frontal passage could nudge the maximum by a degree or two, while any unexpected clearing would be needed to reach the low-80s tail. Updated short-range model runs and NWS forecast discussions remain the key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$3,521结束日期
2026-08-15市场开放时间
Aug 13, 2026, 8:56 PM ETLatest National Weather Service ensemble guidance positions Chicago’s August 15 high near the upper 70s to low 80s, below the 82.8 °F seasonal normal, as persistent cloud cover, easterly onshore flow off Lake Michigan, and elevated boundary-layer moisture limit daytime heating. These conditions have tightened trader consensus around the 80–81 °F and 82–83 °F bins, which together command nearly 70 % implied probability. Minor shifts in cloud timing or weak frontal passage could nudge the maximum by a degree or two, while any unexpected clearing would be needed to reach the low-80s tail. Updated short-range model runs and NWS forecast discussions remain the key near-term catalysts.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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