Recent forecast guidance from European and global models points to a cooler northwesterly flow over central Poland, combined with increased cloud cover and scattered showers, as the main driver keeping Warsaw’s August 19 maximum clustered near 20–22 °C. This setup reduces surface insolation and promotes boundary-layer moisture that limits afternoon heating, creating a modest cool anomaly relative to typical late-August climatology of 23–26 °C. Trader probabilities—led closely by 21 °C and 20 °C—reflect small differences among model runs regarding the exact timing of any clearing or frontal passage. Short-range updates and afternoon observations over the next 48 hours will refine the precise threshold before resolution.