**Trader consensus strongly favors 15°C as the lowest temperature recorded in Warsaw on September 9, 2026, at 98.5% implied probability.** This reflects aggregated real-money positioning aligned with official meteorological observations showing a daily minimum of approximately 15.2°C. Station data from Warsaw (e.g., Warszawa monitoring sites) recorded the overnight low near 15°C under clear to partly cloudy skies with light winds, following a daytime high of 29°C. Atmospheric conditions featured moderate pressure and typical early-September radiative cooling overnight, without significant cold advection or cloud cover that would suppress the minimum. Historical September baselines for the region average around 14°C for minima, placing the observed value slightly above normal but consistent with recent warmer patterns. Realistic challenges remain limited. A revised station reading, measurement at a non-standard site, or unexpected microclimate effect could theoretically shift the recorded low by 1°C, but multiple independent sources converge on the 15°C threshold with minimal divergence in model outputs or observations. The market’s extreme concentration indicates traders view such outliers as improbable given the data consensus.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于9月9日华沙最低气温？
9月9日华沙最低气温？
15°C 100.0%
11℃或以下 <1%
12°C <1%
13°C <1%
$2,306 交易量
$2,306 交易量
2026-09-09
11℃或以下
否
12°C
否
13°C
否
14°C
否
15°C
是
16°C
否
17°C
否
18°C
否
19°C
否
20°C
否
21°C或更高
否
15°C 100.0%
11℃或以下 <1%
12°C <1%
13°C <1%
$2,306 交易量
$2,306 交易量
2026-09-09
11℃或以下
$110 交易量
否
12°C
$89 交易量
否
13°C
$66 交易量
否
14°C
$147 交易量
否
15°C
$558 交易量
是
16°C
$159 交易量
否
17°C
$351 交易量
否
18°C
$229 交易量
否
19°C
$197 交易量
否
20°C
$155 交易量
否
21°C或更高
$246 交易量
否
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus strongly favors 15°C as the lowest temperature recorded in Warsaw on September 9, 2026, at 98.5% implied probability.** This reflects aggregated real-money positioning aligned with official meteorological observations showing a daily minimum of approximately 15.2°C.
Station data from Warsaw (e.g., Warszawa monitoring sites) recorded the overnight low near 15°C under clear to partly cloudy skies with light winds, following a daytime high of 29°C. Atmospheric conditions featured moderate pressure and typical early-September radiative cooling overnight, without significant cold advection or cloud cover that would suppress the minimum. Historical September baselines for the region average around 14°C for minima, placing the observed value slightly above normal but consistent with recent warmer patterns.
Realistic challenges remain limited. A revised station reading, measurement at a non-standard site, or unexpected microclimate effect could theoretically shift the recorded low by 1°C, but multiple independent sources converge on the 15°C threshold with minimal divergence in model outputs or observations. The market’s extreme concentration indicates traders view such outliers as improbable given the data consensus.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Sep 7, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
交易量
$2,306结束日期
2026-09-09市场开放时间
Sep 7, 2026, 12:30 AM ET已提议结果: 否
无争议
最终结果: 否
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus strongly favors 15°C as the lowest temperature recorded in Warsaw on September 9, 2026, at 98.5% implied probability.** This reflects aggregated real-money positioning aligned with official meteorological observations showing a daily minimum of approximately 15.2°C.
Station data from Warsaw (e.g., Warszawa monitoring sites) recorded the overnight low near 15°C under clear to partly cloudy skies with light winds, following a daytime high of 29°C. Atmospheric conditions featured moderate pressure and typical early-September radiative cooling overnight, without significant cold advection or cloud cover that would suppress the minimum. Historical September baselines for the region average around 14°C for minima, placing the observed value slightly above normal but consistent with recent warmer patterns.
Realistic challenges remain limited. A revised station reading, measurement at a non-standard site, or unexpected microclimate effect could theoretically shift the recorded low by 1°C, but multiple independent sources converge on the 15°C threshold with minimal divergence in model outputs or observations. The market’s extreme concentration indicates traders view such outliers as improbable given the data consensus.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$2,306结束日期
2026-09-09市场开放时间
Sep 7, 2026, 12:30 AM ET已提议结果: 否
无争议
最终结果: 否
**Trader consensus strongly favors 15°C as the lowest temperature recorded in Warsaw on September 9, 2026, at 98.5% implied probability.** This reflects aggregated real-money positioning aligned with official meteorological observations showing a daily minimum of approximately 15.2°C. Station data from Warsaw (e.g., Warszawa monitoring sites) recorded the overnight low near 15°C under clear to partly cloudy skies with light winds, following a daytime high of 29°C. Atmospheric conditions featured moderate pressure and typical early-September radiative cooling overnight, without significant cold advection or cloud cover that would suppress the minimum. Historical September baselines for the region average around 14°C for minima, placing the observed value slightly above normal but consistent with recent warmer patterns. Realistic challenges remain limited. A revised station reading, measurement at a non-standard site, or unexpected microclimate effect could theoretically shift the recorded low by 1°C, but multiple independent sources converge on the 15°C threshold with minimal divergence in model outputs or observations. The market’s extreme concentration indicates traders view such outliers as improbable given the data consensus.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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