Recent model consensus from European and global forecasting systems supports a minimum temperature near 6°C in Warsaw on September 13, driven by northerly flow advecting cooler air masses and clear overnight conditions promoting radiative cooling under high pressure. Surface observations through the afternoon have remained above 12°C with light winds, yet the nocturnal boundary layer is expected to decouple, allowing temperatures to fall sharply toward dawn. This aligns with climatological norms for mid-September when polar maritime air influences the region. The 99.5% market-implied probability for exactly 6°C reflects strong agreement across ensemble members, though a faster wind shift or increased cloud cover could limit cooling and push the low above 7°C, while deeper cold advection would be required to reach 5°C or below.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于9月13日华沙最低气温？
9月13日华沙最低气温？
6°C 99.6%
5℃或更低 <1%
7°C <1%
8°C <1%
$1,937 交易量
$1,937 交易量
2026-09-13
5℃或更低
1%
6°C
100%
7°C
<1%
8°C
<1%
9℃
<1%
10°C
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
<1%
13°C
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C或更高
<1%
6°C 99.6%
5℃或更低 <1%
7°C <1%
8°C <1%
$1,937 交易量
$1,937 交易量
2026-09-13
5℃或更低
$212 交易量
1%
6°C
$385 交易量
100%
7°C
$566 交易量
<1%
8°C
$74 交易量
<1%
9℃
$304 交易量
<1%
10°C
$228 交易量
<1%
11°C
$58 交易量
<1%
12°C
$52 交易量
<1%
13°C
$0 交易量
<1%
14°C
$25 交易量
<1%
15°C或更高
$33 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from European and global forecasting systems supports a minimum temperature near 6°C in Warsaw on September 13, driven by northerly flow advecting cooler air masses and clear overnight conditions promoting radiative cooling under high pressure. Surface observations through the afternoon have remained above 12°C with light winds, yet the nocturnal boundary layer is expected to decouple, allowing temperatures to fall sharply toward dawn. This aligns with climatological norms for mid-September when polar maritime air influences the region. The 99.5% market-implied probability for exactly 6°C reflects strong agreement across ensemble members, though a faster wind shift or increased cloud cover could limit cooling and push the low above 7°C, while deeper cold advection would be required to reach 5°C or below.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Sep 11, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
交易量
$1,937结束日期
2026-09-13市场开放时间
Sep 11, 2026, 12:30 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from European and global forecasting systems supports a minimum temperature near 6°C in Warsaw on September 13, driven by northerly flow advecting cooler air masses and clear overnight conditions promoting radiative cooling under high pressure. Surface observations through the afternoon have remained above 12°C with light winds, yet the nocturnal boundary layer is expected to decouple, allowing temperatures to fall sharply toward dawn. This aligns with climatological norms for mid-September when polar maritime air influences the region. The 99.5% market-implied probability for exactly 6°C reflects strong agreement across ensemble members, though a faster wind shift or increased cloud cover could limit cooling and push the low above 7°C, while deeper cold advection would be required to reach 5°C or below.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$1,937结束日期
2026-09-13市场开放时间
Sep 11, 2026, 12:30 AM ETRecent model consensus from European and global forecasting systems supports a minimum temperature near 6°C in Warsaw on September 13, driven by northerly flow advecting cooler air masses and clear overnight conditions promoting radiative cooling under high pressure. Surface observations through the afternoon have remained above 12°C with light winds, yet the nocturnal boundary layer is expected to decouple, allowing temperatures to fall sharply toward dawn. This aligns with climatological norms for mid-September when polar maritime air influences the region. The 99.5% market-implied probability for exactly 6°C reflects strong agreement across ensemble members, though a faster wind shift or increased cloud cover could limit cooling and push the low above 7°C, while deeper cold advection would be required to reach 5°C or below.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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