Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight clustering around 10–14°C for Moscow's April 16 high temperature, driven by the latest GFS and ECMWF ensemble forecasts showing mean highs of 12–15°C under a high-pressure ridge ushering mild easterly airflow and partial cloud cover. Recent observations confirm a warming trend, with April 14 reaching 12°C and April 15 hitting 14°C, elevating implied probabilities for 13°C (26%) as the peak amid light winds (2–3 m/s) limiting mixing. Differentiating factors include variable light rain potential suppressing solar heating by 1–2°C, diurnal timing of clouds, and urban heat effects at official stations; new model runs expected today could refine this uncertainty before observations resolve the market.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Moscow on April 16?
Highest temperature in Moscow on April 16?
13°C 35%
14°C 17%
11°C 16.8%
12°C 15%
NUEVO
NUEVO
16 abr 2026
8°C or below
3%
9°C
2%
10°C
12%
11°C
17%
12°C
15%
13°C
25%
14°C
14%
15°C
13%
16°C
9%
17°C
1%
18°C or higher
3%
13°C 35%
14°C 17%
11°C 16.8%
12°C 15%
NUEVO
NUEVO
16 abr 2026
8°C or below
$276 Vol.
3%
9°C
$47 Vol.
2%
10°C
$53 Vol.
12%
11°C
$66 Vol.
17%
12°C
$36 Vol.
15%
13°C
$49 Vol.
25%
14°C
$84 Vol.
14%
15°C
$144 Vol.
13%
16°C
$175 Vol.
9%
17°C
$140 Vol.
1%
18°C or higher
$64 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 16 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight clustering around 10–14°C for Moscow's April 16 high temperature, driven by the latest GFS and ECMWF ensemble forecasts showing mean highs of 12–15°C under a high-pressure ridge ushering mild easterly airflow and partial cloud cover. Recent observations confirm a warming trend, with April 14 reaching 12°C and April 15 hitting 14°C, elevating implied probabilities for 13°C (26%) as the peak amid light winds (2–3 m/s) limiting mixing. Differentiating factors include variable light rain potential suppressing solar heating by 1–2°C, diurnal timing of clouds, and urban heat effects at official stations; new model runs expected today could refine this uncertainty before observations resolve the market.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 16 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Apr 14, 2026, 6:19 PM ET
Volumen
$1,135Fecha de finalización
16 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 14, 2026, 6:19 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 16 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight clustering around 10–14°C for Moscow's April 16 high temperature, driven by the latest GFS and ECMWF ensemble forecasts showing mean highs of 12–15°C under a high-pressure ridge ushering mild easterly airflow and partial cloud cover. Recent observations confirm a warming trend, with April 14 reaching 12°C and April 15 hitting 14°C, elevating implied probabilities for 13°C (26%) as the peak amid light winds (2–3 m/s) limiting mixing. Differentiating factors include variable light rain potential suppressing solar heating by 1–2°C, diurnal timing of clouds, and urban heat effects at official stations; new model runs expected today could refine this uncertainty before observations resolve the market.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 16 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$1,135Fecha de finalización
16 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 14, 2026, 6:19 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight clustering around 10–14°C for Moscow's April 16 high temperature, driven by the latest GFS and ECMWF ensemble forecasts showing mean highs of 12–15°C under a high-pressure ridge ushering mild easterly airflow and partial cloud cover. Recent observations confirm a warming trend, with April 14 reaching 12°C and April 15 hitting 14°C, elevating implied probabilities for 13°C (26%) as the peak amid light winds (2–3 m/s) limiting mixing. Differentiating factors include variable light rain potential suppressing solar heating by 1–2°C, diurnal timing of clouds, and urban heat effects at official stations; new model runs expected today could refine this uncertainty before observations resolve the market.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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