Recent forecasts from major models like ECMWF and GFS indicate a surge of warmer southerly flow across the Netherlands in late June, driven by building high pressure and reduced Atlantic influence, supporting daily maxima near 32–36°C in Amsterdam on June 27. Ensemble spreads remain wide due to timing uncertainties in the warm-air advection and possible cloud or shower development, which explains the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around 30–36°C. Local factors such as urban heat-island effects at the official KNMI station, wind direction shifts, and boundary-layer mixing further differentiate outcomes within a narrow range. Updated model runs and observational data over the next 48 hours will likely refine these probabilities ahead of the June 27 resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Amsterdam on June 27?
Highest temperature in Amsterdam on June 27?
30°C or below 100.0%
31°C <1%
32°C <1%
33°C <1%
$110,454 Vol.
$110,454 Vol.
Jun 27, 2026
30°C or below
Yes
31°C
No
32°C
No
33°C
No
34°C
No
35°C
No
36°C
No
37°C
No
38°C
No
39°C
No
40°C or higher
No
30°C or below 100.0%
31°C <1%
32°C <1%
33°C <1%
$110,454 Vol.
$110,454 Vol.
Jun 27, 2026
30°C or below
$19,044 Vol.
Yes
31°C
$10,992 Vol.
No
32°C
$15,374 Vol.
No
33°C
$11,228 Vol.
No
34°C
$16,523 Vol.
No
35°C
$10,617 Vol.
No
36°C
$7,848 Vol.
No
37°C
$9,702 Vol.
No
38°C
$3,254 Vol.
No
39°C
$3,160 Vol.
No
40°C or higher
$2,714 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from major models like ECMWF and GFS indicate a surge of warmer southerly flow across the Netherlands in late June, driven by building high pressure and reduced Atlantic influence, supporting daily maxima near 32–36°C in Amsterdam on June 27. Ensemble spreads remain wide due to timing uncertainties in the warm-air advection and possible cloud or shower development, which explains the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around 30–36°C. Local factors such as urban heat-island effects at the official KNMI station, wind direction shifts, and boundary-layer mixing further differentiate outcomes within a narrow range. Updated model runs and observational data over the next 48 hours will likely refine these probabilities ahead of the June 27 resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jun 25, 2026, 1:02 AM ET
Volume
$110,454End Date
Jun 27, 2026Market Opened
Jun 25, 2026, 1:02 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAMResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: Yes
No dispute
Final outcome: Yes
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from major models like ECMWF and GFS indicate a surge of warmer southerly flow across the Netherlands in late June, driven by building high pressure and reduced Atlantic influence, supporting daily maxima near 32–36°C in Amsterdam on June 27. Ensemble spreads remain wide due to timing uncertainties in the warm-air advection and possible cloud or shower development, which explains the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around 30–36°C. Local factors such as urban heat-island effects at the official KNMI station, wind direction shifts, and boundary-layer mixing further differentiate outcomes within a narrow range. Updated model runs and observational data over the next 48 hours will likely refine these probabilities ahead of the June 27 resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$110,454End Date
Jun 27, 2026Market Opened
Jun 25, 2026, 1:02 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAMResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: Yes
No dispute
Final outcome: Yes
Recent forecasts from major models like ECMWF and GFS indicate a surge of warmer southerly flow across the Netherlands in late June, driven by building high pressure and reduced Atlantic influence, supporting daily maxima near 32–36°C in Amsterdam on June 27. Ensemble spreads remain wide due to timing uncertainties in the warm-air advection and possible cloud or shower development, which explains the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around 30–36°C. Local factors such as urban heat-island effects at the official KNMI station, wind direction shifts, and boundary-layer mixing further differentiate outcomes within a narrow range. Updated model runs and observational data over the next 48 hours will likely refine these probabilities ahead of the June 27 resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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