Latest National Weather Service guidance for Austin places the April 13 high temperature near 82°F under partly cloudy skies with chances of showers and thunderstorms, reflecting an unsettled pattern with warm, humid air masses and potential severe storm risks including hail and gusty winds. However, trader consensus tilts toward 84°F or higher at 53.5% implied probability, driven by GFS and ECMWF model ensembles indicating stronger high-pressure ridging that could yield mid-80s peaks if convective activity diminishes. Early April's frequent cold fronts capped highs in the upper 70s, but recent observations show a warming trend above seasonal norms (average ~80°F), with new 12z model runs and NWS updates expected today potentially refining land surface heating and cloud cover forecasts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Austin on April 13?
Highest temperature in Austin on April 13?
84°F or higher 56%
82-83°F 27%
80-81°F 14%
78-79°F 3.1%
$12,388 Vol.
$12,388 Vol.
65°F or below
<1%
66-67°F
<1%
68-69°F
<1%
70-71°F
<1%
72-73°F
1%
74-75°F
1%
76-77°F
2%
78-79°F
3%
80-81°F
14%
82-83°F
27%
84°F or higher
56%
84°F or higher 56%
82-83°F 27%
80-81°F 14%
78-79°F 3.1%
$12,388 Vol.
$12,388 Vol.
65°F or below
<1%
66-67°F
<1%
68-69°F
<1%
70-71°F
<1%
72-73°F
1%
74-75°F
1%
76-77°F
2%
78-79°F
3%
80-81°F
14%
82-83°F
27%
84°F or higher
56%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Apr 9, 2026, 12:21 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUSResolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUSResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest National Weather Service guidance for Austin places the April 13 high temperature near 82°F under partly cloudy skies with chances of showers and thunderstorms, reflecting an unsettled pattern with warm, humid air masses and potential severe storm risks including hail and gusty winds. However, trader consensus tilts toward 84°F or higher at 53.5% implied probability, driven by GFS and ECMWF model ensembles indicating stronger high-pressure ridging that could yield mid-80s peaks if convective activity diminishes. Early April's frequent cold fronts capped highs in the upper 70s, but recent observations show a warming trend above seasonal norms (average ~80°F), with new 12z model runs and NWS updates expected today potentially refining land surface heating and cloud cover forecasts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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