Official Met Office observations from key London stations, including Heathrow, confirm the highest temperature on May 3, 2026, peaked at 20°C amid sunny intervals transitioning to increasing cloud cover and light southerly winds around 8-10 km/h, which limited further solar heating after midday. This verified measurement, aligning closely with pre-event forecast model consensus from the UKV and global ECMWF ensembles projecting 19-21°C maxima, underpins the market's 100% implied probability on 20°C as traders aggregate real-time synoptic data with skin-in-the-game precision. While early May climatology typically sees London highs near 17°C, yesterday's conditions fit mild high-pressure influence without anomalous warmth. Realistic challenges include minor data quality revisions in final validation or a late-submitted outlier from peripheral sites like Kew Gardens exceeding 20°C, though unlikely given standardized reporting protocols; watch for Met Office's monthly summary for closure.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in London on May 3?
Highest temperature in London on May 3?
20°C 100.0%
14°C or below <1%
15°C <1%
16°C <1%
$204,129 Vol.
$204,129 Vol.
May 3, 2026
14°C or below
No
15°C
No
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C
Yes
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C or higher
No
20°C 100.0%
14°C or below <1%
15°C <1%
16°C <1%
$204,129 Vol.
$204,129 Vol.
May 3, 2026
14°C or below
$4,444 Vol.
No
15°C
$5,067 Vol.
No
16°C
$5,101 Vol.
No
17°C
$16,328 Vol.
No
18°C
$24,461 Vol.
No
19°C
$36,315 Vol.
No
20°C
$31,920 Vol.
Yes
21°C
$32,274 Vol.
No
22°C
$27,815 Vol.
No
23°C
$14,302 Vol.
No
24°C or higher
$6,104 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Official Met Office observations from key London stations, including Heathrow, confirm the highest temperature on May 3, 2026, peaked at 20°C amid sunny intervals transitioning to increasing cloud cover and light southerly winds around 8-10 km/h, which limited further solar heating after midday. This verified measurement, aligning closely with pre-event forecast model consensus from the UKV and global ECMWF ensembles projecting 19-21°C maxima, underpins the market's 100% implied probability on 20°C as traders aggregate real-time synoptic data with skin-in-the-game precision. While early May climatology typically sees London highs near 17°C, yesterday's conditions fit mild high-pressure influence without anomalous warmth. Realistic challenges include minor data quality revisions in final validation or a late-submitted outlier from peripheral sites like Kew Gardens exceeding 20°C, though unlikely given standardized reporting protocols; watch for Met Office's monthly summary for closure.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 1, 2026, 12:23 AM ET
Volume
$204,129End Date
May 3, 2026Market Opened
May 1, 2026, 12:23 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Official Met Office observations from key London stations, including Heathrow, confirm the highest temperature on May 3, 2026, peaked at 20°C amid sunny intervals transitioning to increasing cloud cover and light southerly winds around 8-10 km/h, which limited further solar heating after midday. This verified measurement, aligning closely with pre-event forecast model consensus from the UKV and global ECMWF ensembles projecting 19-21°C maxima, underpins the market's 100% implied probability on 20°C as traders aggregate real-time synoptic data with skin-in-the-game precision. While early May climatology typically sees London highs near 17°C, yesterday's conditions fit mild high-pressure influence without anomalous warmth. Realistic challenges include minor data quality revisions in final validation or a late-submitted outlier from peripheral sites like Kew Gardens exceeding 20°C, though unlikely given standardized reporting protocols; watch for Met Office's monthly summary for closure.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$204,129End Date
May 3, 2026Market Opened
May 1, 2026, 12:23 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Official Met Office observations from key London stations, including Heathrow, confirm the highest temperature on May 3, 2026, peaked at 20°C amid sunny intervals transitioning to increasing cloud cover and light southerly winds around 8-10 km/h, which limited further solar heating after midday. This verified measurement, aligning closely with pre-event forecast model consensus from the UKV and global ECMWF ensembles projecting 19-21°C maxima, underpins the market's 100% implied probability on 20°C as traders aggregate real-time synoptic data with skin-in-the-game precision. While early May climatology typically sees London highs near 17°C, yesterday's conditions fit mild high-pressure influence without anomalous warmth. Realistic challenges include minor data quality revisions in final validation or a late-submitted outlier from peripheral sites like Kew Gardens exceeding 20°C, though unlikely given standardized reporting protocols; watch for Met Office's monthly summary for closure.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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